{"id":65452,"date":"2022-05-09T15:46:52","date_gmt":"2022-05-09T19:46:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=65452"},"modified":"2022-05-15T10:50:59","modified_gmt":"2022-05-15T14:50:59","slug":"challenge-of-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/challenge-of-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"The Challenge of the Future: Peter Thiel&#8217;s Take"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What&#8217;s the future of the world? What are the main challenges the future holds in store?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Peter Thiel likes to ask job candidates what he calls a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/peter-thiel-contrarian-question\/\">contrarian question<\/a>: \u201cWhat important truth do few people agree with you on?\u201d The best answers provide insight into the future. While most people think that globalization will dictate the world of the future, Thiel believes that technology will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep reading for Thiel&#8217;s take on the challenge of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-challenge-of-the-future\">The Challenge of the Future<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Progress can be either horizontal or vertical. <strong>Horizontal or expansive progress results from duplicating success<\/strong>\u2014going from 1 to n. We can easily envision this kind of progress because it\u2019s much like the present. <strong>Vertical or intensive (focused) progress requires originality<\/strong>\u2014going from 0 to 1. It\u2019s more difficult to envision because we\u2019ve never seen it before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An example of horizontal progress would be building a dozen horse-drawn carriages based on the design of an existing one. An example of vertical progress would be building the first automobile to replace a horse-drawn carriage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Globalization is horizontal progress<\/strong>\u2014it entails taking something that works in a particular place and replicating it everywhere. For instance, China\u2019s 20-year plan is to be like the West is today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technology, going from 0 to 1, is vertical progress<\/strong>\u2014it encompasses anything new and better, including but not limited to computers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These modes of progress can occur simultaneously or one at a time. For instance, the period from World War I through Nixon\u2019s visit to China in 1971 featured technological development but not much globalization. However, since 1971, we\u2019ve seen rapid globalization without much technological development beyond information technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Globalization is a path to homogenization. The way we talk about \u201cthe developed world\u201d implies a belief that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-advancement-of-technology\/\">technological progress<\/a> has reached its apex in Western nations. Meanwhile, \u201cdeveloping nations\u201d haven\u2019t yet attained this plateau, but it\u2019s just a matter of time before they do.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Peter Thiel, the main challenge of the future will be developing technology to accommodate globalization. Continued globalization isn\u2019t feasible without technological progress, because the industrialization of more countries will lead to more problems. For instance, if China doubles its industrial production without technology improvements, it will double its pollution, potentially making its cities unlivable. People associate Western business practices and lifestyles with wealth, but if the whole world tries to adopt current Western methods, they will only deplete their resources\u2014bringing ruin, not wealth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New technology has never been a given. From the primitive agrarian societies thousands of years ago up until the advent of the steam engine in the 1760s, there was little technological progress. From that point, technological advances continued through 1970. In the late 1960s, however, people looked forward to a future of tech advances that didn\u2019t happen\u2014for instance, cheap energy and recreational <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/interstellar-space-travel\/\">space travel<\/a>. Although they expected great advances to be automatic, only computers and communications advanced dramatically. Imagining a better future is a prerequisite to creating it, but it\u2019s only half the battle. Then we need to develop the technology to make it a reality.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-startup-thinking\">Startup Thinking<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For several reasons, <strong>startups consisting of a few people with a mission are the source of most new technology.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Big organizations don\u2019t often produce new technology because they tend to avoid risk. People working alone seldom produce new technology either. A brilliant loner might produce great art, but she wouldn\u2019t have the means to create a new industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Startups work because it takes multiple people to create new technology, but only small companies can be flexible and cohesive enough to embrace new thinking. Furthermore, high-tech startups recognize that original thinking is their most valuable asset because<strong> their success depends on their ability to redefine their industry<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thiel clarifies that his book is not a recipe for creating a successful startup\u2014by definition, there can\u2019t be a recipe for a successful startup, because successful startups require original thinking. But his book does provide a starting point for considering the <em>questions<\/em> that you must answer for your startup to succeed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What&#8217;s the future of the world? What are the main challenges the future holds in store? Peter Thiel likes to ask job candidates what he calls a contrarian question: \u201cWhat important truth do few people agree with you on?\u201d The best answers provide insight into the future. While most people think that globalization will dictate the world of the future, Thiel believes that technology will. Keep reading for Thiel&#8217;s take on the challenge of the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":65454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,24],"tags":[97],"class_list":["post-65452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-society","tag-zero-to-one","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Challenge of the Future: Peter Thiel&#039;s Take - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"According to Peter Thiel, the main challenge of the future will be developing technology to accommodate globalization. Learn more.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/challenge-of-the-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Challenge of the Future: Peter Thiel&#039;s Take\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to Peter Thiel, the main challenge of the future will be developing technology to accommodate globalization. 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