{"id":59669,"date":"2022-02-11T13:29:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-11T17:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=59669"},"modified":"2022-02-14T14:39:04","modified_gmt":"2022-02-14T18:39:04","slug":"the-conjunction-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-conjunction-fallacy\/","title":{"rendered":"The Conjunction Fallacy: Plausibility Over Probability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is the conjunction fallacy<\/a>? Why do we tend to discount probability when choosing whether to believe something or not? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conjunction fallacy is the human tendency to prefer a plausible story to a probable one. In other words, when a story makes sense to you, you\u2019re likely to believe it even if the true probability of it occurring is low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep reading to learn about the conjunction fallacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The Conjunction Fallacy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The conjunction fallacy is the tendency to judge the conjunction of events as more likely than its constituent conjuncts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, consider a girl named Katrina who loves musicals. Now consider these statements:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Katrina performs on stage.<\/li>
  2. Katrina performs on stage in a musical.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Many people pick the second option as most likely because it makes a better story<\/strong>: Katrina loves musicals, so she\u2019d perform in a musical. However, the first<\/em> option is actually more likely in terms of probability because it\u2019s broader: It has just one condition (Katrina being on stage) rather than two (Katrina being on stage and<\/em> in a musical).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The conjunction fallacy occurs when you use fast thinking<\/a> instead of slow, Dobelli says. While your logical brain is still calculating the probability of an event, your instinctive thought process makes connections to explain why the event might occur. The connections it finds often form a plausible story, so you accept the instinctive connection rather than waiting for the logical probability.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Overcoming the Conjunction Fallacy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    While Dobelli presents the conjunction fallacy as something common, others argue that he exaggerates the danger of this fallacy. Dobelli based his understanding of the conjunction fallacy on the initial study<\/a> that defined it. However, other studies were unable to replicate this initial study\u2019s results\u2014they found that the conjunction fallacy isn\u2019t as common as the original researchers suggested<\/a>. Only 45% of respondents succumbed to the fallacy, compared to 85% in the original study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Discussing a situation with other people drastically reduces the likelihood of the conjunction fallacy taking root. Thus, it\u2019s possible that overreliance on quick, instinctive cognition\u2014which Dobelli credits with causing the conjunction fallacy, as discussed above\u2014can easily be overcome.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    What is the conjunction fallacy? Why do we tend to discount probability when choosing whether to believe something or not? The conjunction fallacy is the human tendency to prefer a plausible story to a probable one. In other words, when a story makes sense to you, you\u2019re likely to believe it even if the true probability of it occurring is low. Keep reading to learn about the conjunction fallacy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":1610,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,160],"tags":[576],"class_list":["post-59669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psychology","category-science","tag-the-art-of-thinking-clearly","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Conjunction Fallacy: Plausibility Over Probability - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The conjunction fallacy is the tendency to prefer a plausible story to a probable one. 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