{"id":56002,"date":"2021-12-04T19:54:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-04T23:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=56002"},"modified":"2021-12-14T17:20:50","modified_gmt":"2021-12-14T21:20:50","slug":"how-did-donald-trump-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/","title":{"rendered":"How Did Donald Trump Win Against All Odds?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>How did Donald Trump win the election when all odds were against him? What were the key factors that helped him secure the Republican nomination in June 2015? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When Trump launched his campaign for the Republican nomination in June 2015, he was a novelty candidate who stood little chance of actually winning. A total outsider to GOP politics, he had no close institutional ties to the party and seemed to lack even the most basic grounding in conservative ideology\u2014not to mention his anti-immigration rhetoric that many leaders in the Republican Party considered to be extreme and outlandish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is how political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt explain Donald Trump&#8217;s success in securing the nomination. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-donald-trump-outsider-candidate\"><strong>Donald Trump: Outsider Candidate<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>How did Donald Trump win the Republican nomination? In their book <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-democracies-die-book\/\">How Democracies Die<\/a><\/em>, Levitsky and Ziblatt argue, Trump\u2019s pre-existing celebrity as a real estate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/malcolm-gladwell-maven\/\">maven<\/a> and reality television host of <em>The Apprentice<\/em> was his secret weapon in the primary\u2014something that gave him near-universal name recognition among GOP primary voters and helped him promote himself as a successful, hard-nosed businessman with the skills to bring the nation to prosperity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Trump\u2019s name recognition <em>was <\/em>truly exceptional, even at the very earliest stages of the primary contest. According to Gallup, by July 2015, just a month after announcing his candidacy, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/184337\/among-republicans-gop-candidates-better-known-liked.aspx?utm_source=Politics&amp;utm_medium=newsfeed&amp;utm_campaign=tiles\">92% of Republican voters reported being familiar with Trump<\/a>\u2014compared to 66% for Ted Cruz, 64% for Marco Rubio, and 35% for John Kasich.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-media-dominance\"><strong>Media Dominance<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Levitsky and Ziblatt also argue that Trump\u2019s ability to dominate coverage on right-leaning media outlets like Fox News gave him a connection with Republican voters that was nearly impossible for party elites to break.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although Trump had secured no major endorsements from leading party figures before the Iowa caucuses on February 1\u2014and picked up hardly any even <em>after <\/em>winning early primaries and emerging as a clear frontrunner\u2014<strong>the lack of endorsements turned out not to matter much at all<\/strong>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Levitsky and Ziblatt rate the assets Trump <em>did <\/em>have as far more valuable than endorsements. For he had the loyalty of influential right-wing media figures like Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, and the popular website Breitbart News. Combined with his high name recognition, this enabled him to communicate with his supporters directly, get his message out, and earn far more coverage than high-profile endorsements or campaign donations ever could.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>The Trump-Fox News Connection<\/strong><br><br>Although Levitsky and Ziblatt don\u2019t devote much space to the subject, this symbiotic relationship between Trump and the conservative media ecosystem became a defining feature of his <em>presidency <\/em>as well as his candidacy. Popular hosts on right-leaning Fox News\u2014like Sean Hannity, who spoke at Trump rallies during the president\u2019s 2020 reelection bid\u2014went on to become open surrogates for President Trump.<br><br>Fox News also shaped Trump\u2019s presidential rhetoric and was a major force in guiding the Trump administration\u2019s policy actions. Stories on Fox\u2014like the alleged \u201ccaravan\u201d of migrants headed to the U.S. southern border in fall 2018 or the debunked conspiracy theory that the Democratic National Committee had had a staffer murdered\u2014quickly found themselves amplified on Trump\u2019s Twitter feed. As progressive journalist Brian Beutler argues in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simonandschuster.com\/books\/Hoax\/Brian-Stelter\/9781982142445\"><em>Hoax: Donald Trump, Fox News, and the Dangerous Distortion of Truth<\/em><\/a><em> <\/em>(2020), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/08\/23\/books\/review\/brian-stelter-hoax.html\">Trump even fired cabinet secretaries<\/a> on the basis of attacks by Fox News hosts.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But, argue Levitsky and Ziblatt, it wasn\u2019t just conservative media that boosted Trump. <strong>He also excelled at generating enormous quantities of free coverage in the <\/strong><strong><em>mainstream <\/em><\/strong><strong>media<\/strong>. He achieved this thanks to 1) being a major celebrity <em>before <\/em>he launched his campaign and 2) generating controversy\u2014and thus, coverage\u2014through outlandish and extreme statements. In effect, the media system <em>rewarded <\/em>him for his extremism. Levitsky and Ziblatt cite one study done after the election that showed that Trump\u2019s antics generated approximately $2 billion worth of free media coverage\u2014something that all the endorsements in the world couldn\u2019t buy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-power-of-free\/\">The Power of Free<\/a> Media<\/strong><br><br>Levitsky and Ziblatt point to Trump\u2019s success in garnering free media, but it\u2019s important to flesh out their argument and put his performance in context with that of his Republican rivals.<br><br>The data appears to show that free media coverage (which, unlike campaign ads, isn\u2019t purchased directly by the campaign) was the most important asset in securing the nomination. Through February 2016, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/03\/16\/upshot\/measuring-donald-trumps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.html\">Trump\u2019s paid advertising spending paled in comparison<\/a> to that of ultimately ill-fated candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio\u2014who spent $82 and $55 million on paid ads to Trump\u2019s comparatively minuscule $10 million during the same period.<br>But he earned <em>free <\/em>media coverage estimated at approximately $2 billion\u2014nearly 10 times the $214 million worth of free coverage earned by his closest rival, Jeb Bush.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-constrained-by-nomination-rules\"><strong>Constrained by Nomination Rules<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thus, boosted by name recognition and an uncanny ability to generate media coverage through extreme statements, Trump emerged as the clear frontrunner for the nomination, to the shock of many GOP insiders.<\/strong> Levitsky and Ziblatt do note that some party activists organized plots to change the rules at the convention to \u201cunbind\u201d delegates and let even those pledged to Trump (by virtue of him having won primaries in their states) vote instead for another candidate on the first ballot.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: For example, some conservative groups like the Our Principles PAC attempted to lobby the 168 members of the Republican National Committee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2016\/04\/stop-trump-movement-gop-222315\">to deny Trump the nomination<\/a> in advance of the convention and even ran anti-Trump television advertisements in key primary states.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, as Levitsky and Ziblatt argue, these plans had little institutional backing from within the party and ultimately had little impact on events. The authors argue that this failure can be attributed to the fact that <strong>the rules of the nomination process made it impossible to deny Trump the nomination <\/strong>once he\u2019d secured a majority of pledged delegates. These Trump delegates were bound by party rules to vote at the convention for the candidate who won their states\u2019 primaries\u2014Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a previous era, Levitsky and Ziblatt argue, party leaders might have been able to successfully organize an effort to block Trump. But by 2016, it was primary voters, media figures, and celebrity candidates like Trump who held the real power. GOP voters, with whom Trump was already enormously popular, had overwhelmingly chosen him as the nominee and party leaders lacked any politically realistic mechanism to stop him.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>The \u201cNuclear Option\u201d<br><\/strong><br>The authors don\u2019t note that some delegates at the party convention were bound by state law (not just party rules) to support Trump at the convention by virtue of him having won their states\u2019 primaries. Thus, Trump\u2019s nomination can\u2019t entirely be blamed on what they present as the fecklessness of the Republican Party.<br><br>Still, Trump <em>might <\/em>have been stopped at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Some commentators pointed out that a majority of delegates could choose to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2016\/3\/24\/11295380\/republican-convention-rules-trump-delegates\">exercise the so-called \u201cnuclear option\u201d<\/a> by changing the rules on the floor to allow them to vote for the candidate of their choice, rather than the one to whom they were bound by primary voters. Since many pledged delegates were state and local party officials who were not necessarily personally loyal to Trump, some argued that the real estate mogul could have been defeated if the delegates were free to vote their conscience at the convention.<br><br>Notably, 2016 was <em>not <\/em>the first time such a course of action was considered. At the 1980 Democratic National Convention, challenger Ted Kennedy attempted to block the re-nomination of incumbent President Jimmy Carter by having his delegates force a floor vote on exactly this kind of rule change. The Kennedy and Carter campaigns each launched furious lobbying efforts to convince delegates to support the rule change (in Kennedy\u2019s case) or oppose it (in Carter\u2019s case). Kennedy\u2019s effort ultimately failed and Carter was re-nominated.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How did Donald Trump win the election when all odds were against him? What were the key factors that helped him secure the Republican nomination in June 2015? When Trump launched his campaign for the Republican nomination in June 2015, he was a novelty candidate who stood little chance of actually winning. A total outsider to GOP politics, he had no close institutional ties to the party and seemed to lack even the most basic grounding in conservative ideology\u2014not to mention his anti-immigration rhetoric that many leaders in the Republican Party considered to be extreme and outlandish. Here is how<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":35681,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,33,275],"tags":[291],"class_list":["post-56002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-history","category-people","category-politics","tag-how-democracies-die","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Did Donald Trump Win Against All Odds? - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How did Donald Trump win the election against all odds? 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Here is how Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt explain Trump&#039;s success.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-12-04T23:54:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-12-14T21:20:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/trump-mask-pointing-man.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"533\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Darya Sinusoid\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Darya Sinusoid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Darya Sinusoid\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0421cce75bc249b11e2517b3a91f9c46\"},\"headline\":\"How Did Donald Trump Win Against All Odds?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-04T23:54:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-12-14T21:20:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/\"},\"wordCount\":1311,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/trump-mask-pointing-man.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"How Democracies Die\"],\"articleSection\":[\"History\",\"People\",\"Politics\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/\",\"name\":\"How Did Donald Trump Win Against All Odds? - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-did-donald-trump-win\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/trump-mask-pointing-man.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-04T23:54:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-12-14T21:20:50+00:00\",\"description\":\"How did Donald Trump win the election against all odds? 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