{"id":54327,"date":"2021-11-14T07:24:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-14T11:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=54327"},"modified":"2021-11-16T17:02:56","modified_gmt":"2021-11-16T21:02:56","slug":"the-optimism-bias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/","title":{"rendered":"The Optimism Bias: Curb Your Expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is the optimism bias? How do you curb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/unrealistic-optimism\/\">unrealistic optimism<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The optimism bias is the tendency to believe that you are less likely to have a negative experience and be overconfident in your chances of experiencing positive events. It is this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cognitive-bias-definition\/\">cognitive bias<\/a> that fuels gambling. You can control the tendency by habitually using probability maths in your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/methods-of-decision-making-crucial-conversations\/\">decision-making<\/a> process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read on to learn more about the optimism bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Is the Optimism Bias?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>People tend to believe things will work out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhat a man wishes, that also will he believe.\u201d\u2014Demosthenes<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why It Evolved<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hope spurs action. If you\u2019re optimistic that you\u2019ll survive and a food source is right around the corner, you\u2019ll continue trying to survive. In contrast, a pessimistic depression dampens the very behaviors that would encourage survival.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How It Can Be Harmful<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Denial of bad news and over-optimistic ignorance of risk factors leads to poor decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Examples<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>People buy lottery tickets and overestimate their chances of winning<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Antidotes<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To curb the optimism bias, habitually use probability math in your decisions. Your mental heuristics for chance are not adequate, the same way that your intuitive golf grip is nowhere as effective as the unnatural ones now used by professionals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is the optimism bias? How do you curb unrealistic optimism? The optimism bias is the tendency to believe that you are less likely to have a negative experience and be overconfident in your chances of experiencing positive events. It is this cognitive bias that fuels gambling. You can control the tendency by habitually using probability maths in your decision-making process. Read on to learn more about the optimism bias.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":54329,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,9],"tags":[533],"class_list":["post-54327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lifestyle","category-psychology","tag-poor-charlies-almanack","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Optimism Bias: Curb Your Expectations - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The optimism bias lets us overestimate the probability of a positive event that leads to gambling. Here is how to curb the tendency.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Optimism Bias: Curb Your Expectations\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The optimism bias lets us overestimate the probability of a positive event that leads to gambling. Here is how to curb the tendency.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-14T11:24:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-16T21:02:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/optimism.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"785\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Joseph Adebisi\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Joseph Adebisi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Joseph Adebisi\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d8daf45671a09e8745a7a9f50a03b2a0\"},\"headline\":\"The Optimism Bias: Curb Your Expectations\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-14T11:24:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-16T21:02:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/\"},\"wordCount\":212,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/optimism.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Poor Charlie&#039;s Almanack\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Lifestyle\",\"Psychology\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/\",\"name\":\"The Optimism Bias: Curb Your Expectations - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-optimism-bias\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/optimism.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-14T11:24:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-16T21:02:56+00:00\",\"description\":\"The optimism bias lets us overestimate the probability of a positive event that leads to gambling. 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