{"id":54186,"date":"2021-11-03T23:08:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-04T03:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=54186"},"modified":"2021-11-15T14:44:02","modified_gmt":"2021-11-15T18:44:02","slug":"contrarian-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"Charlie Munger: How to Practice Contrarian Thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is contrarian thinking? How do you practice <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/convergent-vs-divergent-thinking\/\">divergent thinking<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contrarian thinking involves challenging the prevailing consensus on any particular issue to arrive at an independent point of view. Thinking for yourself can help <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/generate-new-ideas\/\">generate new ideas<\/a> that are more correct than the public consensus. You practice divergent thinking by inverting the prevailing view on an issue to see it from a different perspective.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;Read on to discover <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-practice\/\">how to practice<\/a> contrarian thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Practice Divergent and Contrarian Thinking<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/social-proof-examples-cialdini\/\">Social proof bias<\/a> is the tendency to believe what others believe, to improve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/social-unity\/\">social cohesion<\/a>. This causes humans to think like sheep, even if the ideas they believe are wrong. <strong>Practicing contrarian thinking invites new ideas that might be more correct than what everyone else thinks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Munger and Buffett practice contrarian thinking regularly in their financial management. If you adopt the same investment practices as everyone else, you can by definition only get average returns. To achieve outstanding returns, you need to think differently from the crowd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Munger bemoans how many institutional investors are unwilling to deviate from the crowd, because doing so and failing would make them look dumb.<\/li><li>Given Berkshire Hathaway\u2019s successful investment record, why don\u2019t more investors try to emulate their strategy? The answer might be that their multidisciplinary approach to investing (described later) is simply too difficult, or that people are afraid to look dumb by not following the crowd.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe \u2018silly\u2019 question is the first intimation of some totally new development.\u201d\u2014Alfred Whitehead<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Munger demonstrates a few examples of contrarian thinking in his writing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Japan\u2019s recession had endured for ten years, despite their government trying to stir growth through monetary policy. At the same time, there was an asset bubble in Hong Kong. Economists struggled to come up with an explanation. Munger thought it was simple\u2014Japanese and Chinese people have very different cultures, and \u201cthe Chinese are gamblers.\u201d But economists wouldn\u2019t have accepted this explanation, not least of all because it\u2019s politically incorrect. Munger cited this as an example of how successful investors need to practice multidisciplinary, divergent thinking to succeed.<\/li><li>To get better at tennis, Charlie didn\u2019t practice serves or powerful swings, like most people. Instead, he bought a tennis ball practice machine and practiced volleys endlessly. This is tedious and no one really likes practicing volleys, but mastering them gave him a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/business-competitive-advantage\/\">competitive advantage<\/a>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Invert, Always Invert<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One way to practice divergent thinking is to <strong>invert your view on a situation, to look at it from the opposite perspective<\/strong>. This approach to contrarian thinking can reveal new insights. \u201cMany hard problems are best solved only when they are addressed backwards.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are a few examples of inverting thinking:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Instead of thinking about how something can succeed, think about how it can fail. \u201cWhat can go wrong that I haven\u2019t seen?\u201d<\/li><li>When physicists were trying to revise Maxwell\u2019s electromagnetic laws to be consistent with Newton\u2019s mechanical laws, Einstein inverted the situation\u2014he revised Newton\u2019s laws to fit Maxwell\u2019s, and so discovered special relativity.<\/li><li>Great bridge players not only think, \u201chow can I take the winners?\u201d but also \u201chow can I avoid taking too many losers?\u201d<\/li><li>If you want to help a developing country like India, don\u2019t just think, \u201chow can I best help India?\u201d Also think, \u201chow can I most hurt India?\u201d Then you find what can do the worst damage, and then you try to avoid it.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is contrarian thinking? How do you practice divergent thinking? Contrarian thinking involves challenging the prevailing consensus on any particular issue to arrive at an independent point of view. Thinking for yourself can help generate new ideas that are more correct than the public consensus. You practice divergent thinking by inverting the prevailing view on an issue to see it from a different perspective.&nbsp; &nbsp;Read on to discover how to practice contrarian thinking.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":54188,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,24],"tags":[533],"class_list":["post-54186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-self-improvement","category-society","tag-poor-charlies-almanack","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Charlie Munger: How to Practice Contrarian Thinking - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Thinking for yourself leads to new ideas that may be more correct than the prevailing consensus. Here is how to practice contrarian thinking.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Charlie Munger: How to Practice Contrarian Thinking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Thinking for yourself leads to new ideas that may be more correct than the prevailing consensus. Here is how to practice contrarian thinking.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-04T03:08:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-15T18:44:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/think-different.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Joseph Adebisi\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Joseph Adebisi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Joseph Adebisi\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d8daf45671a09e8745a7a9f50a03b2a0\"},\"headline\":\"Charlie Munger: How to Practice Contrarian Thinking\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-04T03:08:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-15T18:44:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/\"},\"wordCount\":584,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/think-different.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Poor Charlie&#039;s Almanack\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Self-Improvement\",\"Society\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/\",\"name\":\"Charlie Munger: How to Practice Contrarian Thinking - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-thinking\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/think-different.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-04T03:08:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-15T18:44:02+00:00\",\"description\":\"Thinking for yourself leads to new ideas that may be more correct than the prevailing consensus. 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