{"id":5323,"date":"2019-12-12T06:48:19","date_gmt":"2019-12-12T10:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=5323"},"modified":"2022-03-17T15:27:02","modified_gmt":"2022-03-17T19:27:02","slug":"chaotic-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/","title":{"rendered":"Chaotic System: What It Is + Why You Can&#8217;t Explain the Past"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is a chaotic system? What are some examples of chaotic systems, and how does the fact that history is a chaotic system affect our ability to explain the past?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A chaotic system is a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-a-dynamic-system\/\">dynamical system<\/a> that&#8217;s highly influenced by its beginnings. A chaotic system can&#8217;t be explained because it&#8217;s impossible to see how all its variables interact. There are two kinds of chaotic systems: level one chaotic systems and level two chaotic systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll cover how chaotic systems work, why they&#8217;re unpredictable, and the difference between level one and level two chaotic systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>History Is a Level Two Chaotic System<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One reason we can\u2019t explain history or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\">predict the future<\/a> is that history is chaotic\u2014it\u2019s too complex to understand how all the variables interact. Not only is history chaotic, it\u2019s a \u201clevel two\u201d chaotic system.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <strong>level one chaotic system<\/strong> is <em>not <\/em>affected by predictions we make about it. For example, the weather is a level one chaotic system. We can make predictions about the weather tomorrow, but those predictions don\u2019t have the ability to <em>change<\/em> the weather tomorrow.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <strong>level two chaotic system<\/strong> <em>is<\/em> affected by predictions we make about it. For example, the oil market is a level two chaotic system. If we predict that the price of oil will increase from $90 a barrel today to $100 a barrel tomorrow, traders will buy a bunch of oil today so they can benefit from the rise in price tomorrow. But this action increases oil prices today, which in turn changes the price of oil tomorrow.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, politics is a level two chaotic system. If someone were to have predicted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/arab-spring-movement\/\">the Arab Spring<\/a> and told Egypt\u2019s President Mubarak that a revolution was imminent, he would have taken actions to prevent it, perhaps lowering taxes and increasing government handouts. In doing so, he likely would have prevented the Arab Spring, nullifying the original prediction.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Level two chaotic systems, like history, are inherently unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>History Isn\u2019t Predictable<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-hindsight-bias\/\">hindsight fallacy<\/a> (or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/hindsight-bias-example\/\">hindsight bias<\/a>) is the human tendency to believe that events that have already happened were more predictable than they actually were. Looking back, we think we could have predicted how history would unfold\u2014it seems obvious in hindsight. But <strong>while today we can describe how history has unfolded so far, we can\u2019t say <em>why<\/em> it\u2019s turned out the way it has.<\/strong> This is because history is a chaotic system.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, we can detail the events leading up to Christianity\u2019s take-over of the Roman Empire, but we can\u2019t determine the causal links between these events. We don\u2019t know why Emperor Constantine chose to convert to Christianity when he could have continued to practice his own polytheistic religion. He also could have converted to Manichaeism, Zoroastrianism, Judaism, or Buddhism, all of which were available to him at the time. But he chose Christianity, which, as we\u2019ll see, was actually an unlikely choice.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The less we know about a historical period, the more we tend to think that the events of that period were inevitable. We can&#8217;t see that history is a chaotic system. The more we learn, the more we see all the roads untaken, some of which were more probable. History often takes unexpected turns\u2014<strong>what seems inevitable now was seen as extremely unlikely at the time.<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, if you were to suggest in AD 306 that Christianity, an obscure sect of Judaism, would become the religion of the Roman Empire, your contemporaries would laugh at you. Similarly, no one could have reasonably predicted that a tiny Russian faction called the Bolsheviks would take over their country in a matter of years. It\u2019s not that <em>anything<\/em> is possible in history. It\u2019s just that there are far more options than we realize.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the same reasons we can\u2019t explain why history happened the way it did, we can\u2019t predict the future. If history is a chaotic system, so is the future. We can\u2019t know if we\u2019re out of the global economic crisis or if China will become the world\u2019s leading superpower.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why do we fall for the hindsight fallacy? <strong>We like to think that history is deterministic because it means that everything that has happened was <em>supposed <\/em>to happen.<\/strong> It\u2019s comforting. Conversely, it\u2019s unnerving to realize that all the events leading up to this moment could have easily turned out differently and that it\u2019s only a coincidence that most of us today believe in collective fictions such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/capitalism-theory\/\">capitalism<\/a> and human rights.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is a chaotic system? What are some examples of chaotic systems, and how does the fact that history is a chaotic system affect our ability to explain the past? A chaotic system is a dynamical system that&#8217;s highly influenced by its beginnings. A chaotic system can&#8217;t be explained because it&#8217;s impossible to see how all its variables interact. There are two kinds of chaotic systems: level one chaotic systems and level two chaotic systems. We&#8217;ll cover how chaotic systems work, why they&#8217;re unpredictable, and the difference between level one and level two chaotic systems.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,25],"tags":[57],"class_list":["post-5323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-history","category-statistics","tag-sapiens","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chaotic System: What It Is + Why You Can&#039;t Explain the Past - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Chaotic systems can&#039;t be explained because we can&#039;t see how all their variables interact. Learn the two kinds of systems and why we can&#039;t explain the past.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chaotic System: What It Is + Why You Can&#039;t Explain the Past\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Chaotic systems can&#039;t be explained because we can&#039;t see how all their variables interact. Learn the two kinds of systems and why we can&#039;t explain the past.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-12-12T10:48:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-17T19:27:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/sapiens-chaotic-system.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"763\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"505\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Amanda Penn\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/01b0e4c9ddb993e51d03808839d538b0\"},\"headline\":\"Chaotic System: What It Is + Why You Can&#8217;t Explain the Past\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-12T10:48:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-17T19:27:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/\"},\"wordCount\":782,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/sapiens-chaotic-system.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Sapiens\"],\"articleSection\":[\"History\",\"Statistics\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/\",\"name\":\"Chaotic System: What It Is + Why You Can't Explain the Past - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/chaotic-system\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/sapiens-chaotic-system.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-12T10:48:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-17T19:27:02+00:00\",\"description\":\"Chaotic systems can't be explained because we can't see how all their variables interact. 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