{"id":50760,"date":"2021-09-28T13:29:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-28T17:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=50760"},"modified":"2021-10-06T13:39:28","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T17:39:28","slug":"moonshot-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/moonshot-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"Moonshot Thinking: 2 Tips for Taking Giant Leaps"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>If you practiced moonshot thinking, what would you dream? What could you achieve?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In <em>Think Like a Rocket Scientist<\/em>, Ozan Varol describes principles to help you realize your seemingly impossible dreams, the same way that rocket scientists did when they successfully landed a man on the Moon. To achieve the impossible, you first must adopt moonshot thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continue reading to learn how to apply moonshot thinking to your own life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Moonshot Thinking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Varol believes that one mistake many people make is setting overly timid goals. Instead, he argues that we should set audacious goals that seem impossible from our current perspective. Varol cites a parable popularized by political strategists James Carville and Paul Begala in which a lion has the choice between hunting plentiful (but unsatisfying) field mice or pouring all its energy into hunting a single antelope. The antelope is much harder to catch, but the lion can\u2019t live on field mice alone\u2014to succeed, it must go after the larger, more elusive prey. (Shortform note: Varol attributes this story to Carville and Begala because it comes from their book, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0743234480?asc_campaign=commerce-pra&amp;asc_refurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Ftim-ferriss-time-management-2017-1&amp;asc_source=browser&amp;tag=thebusiinsi-20\"><em>Buck up, Suck Up&#8230;and Come Back When You Foul Up<\/em><\/a>; however, in the book, Carville and Begala <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/tim-ferriss-time-management-2017-1\">are actually quoting Newt Gingrich<\/a>, former speaker of the House of Representatives.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Varol, humans are the same way\u2014we can\u2019t truly succeed unless we focus on big, difficult goals. Chasing metaphorical antelopes is scary because it involves a lot of risk. However, that fear also keeps most of the competition away, leaving a higher <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/success-is-luck\/\">chance of success<\/a> for anyone who dares to try. Therefore, Varol argues we should set audacious goals that seem impossible from our current perspective\u2014like rocket scientists\u2019 once-impossible-seeming goal to land on the moon. This is moonshot thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Shoot for the Moon\u2014But Bring a Parachute<\/strong><br><br>Moonshot thinking is similar to the technique of \u201cblack swan\u201d investing that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\">Nassim Taleb<\/a> describes in his books, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/the-black-swan\"><em>The Black Swan<\/em><\/a><em> <\/em>and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/antifragile\"><em>Antifragile<\/em><\/a><em>. <\/em>Taleb made a fortune by investing in companies that had the potential to become positive \u201cblack swans\u201d\u2014extremely rare and extremely lucrative successes like Apple or Google.&nbsp;<br><br>However, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/the-black-swan\/chapter-7\">Taleb also insulated himself against the risk of those investments not paying off<\/a> with a strategy he calls \u201cthe barbell\u201d: He devoted 85% of his portfolio to safer investments and only bet on longshots with the remaining 15%. You can adopt the same risk-minimization strategy by devoting a small number of resources to risky endeavors while keeping the majority of them protected\u2014for example, by growing your new business on the weekends while keeping your day job until your business takes off.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How You Can Shoot for the Moon<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Varol, here\u2019s how you can apply moonshot thinking in your own life:.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1) Focus on backcasting, not forecasting<\/strong>. When you forecast, you use the constraints of today to predict what will happen tomorrow. On the other hand, when you backcast, you ignore the status quo and ask, \u201cWhat would an ideal future look like?\u201d Then, you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-reverse-engineer\/\">reverse engineer<\/a> the path from your current situation to that ideal future. (Shortform note: In a blog post, Varol says this is <a href=\"https:\/\/ozanvarol.com\/the-one-strategy-i-use-most-often\/\">the one technique in the book he uses most frequently<\/a>. In fact, Varol credits backcasting for helping him achieve his professional dream of working in rocket science: While still in middle school, he researched the steps other rocket scientists had taken on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-be-rich-and-successful\/\">the way to success<\/a>, then set out to follow in their footsteps\u2014for example, by learning computer programming.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2)<\/strong> <strong>Beware of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/sunk-cost-fallacy-example\/\">sunk cost fallacy<\/a><\/strong>, in which you throw good money after bad. When you practice moonshot thinking, you\u2019re bound to get attached to the project, which means you\u2019re more likely to succumb to this fallacy. To avoid it, work on the hardest part of an audacious project first rather than investing your time and resources into <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/small-details\/\">minor details<\/a>. That way, if your project has a fatal flaw, you\u2019ll discover that <em>before<\/em> you get too deep into it to turn around. (Shortform note: According to Daniel Kahneman, author of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/thinking-fast-and-slow\"><em>Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/em><\/a>, another way to avoid the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-avoid-the-sunk-cost-fallacy\/\">sunk cost<\/a> fallacy is to think of your life as a \u201cglobal account,\u201d not a set of distinct accounts. For example, if you\u2019re tempted to stay in a dead-end relationship, don\u2019t think of the time you\u2019ve already sunk into it\u2014instead, think of your life in general and decide if this is how you want to spend your limited time on Earth.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moonshot thinking literally put a man on the Moon. What could it do for you?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you practiced moonshot thinking, what would you dream? What could you achieve? In Think Like a Rocket Scientist, Ozan Varol describes principles to help you realize your seemingly impossible dreams, the same way that rocket scientists did when they successfully landed a man on the Moon. To achieve the impossible, you first must adopt moonshot thinking. Continue reading to learn how to apply moonshot thinking to your own life.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":50768,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,42,43],"tags":[510],"class_list":["post-50760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-career","category-motivation","category-self-improvement","tag-think-like-a-rocket-scientist","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Moonshot Thinking: 2 Tips for Taking Giant Leaps - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Moonshot thinking literally put a man on the Moon. 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