{"id":48004,"date":"2021-09-02T01:41:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-02T05:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=48004"},"modified":"2021-09-07T16:51:49","modified_gmt":"2021-09-07T20:51:49","slug":"future-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/future-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"Use Future Scenario Planning to Make Better Decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is future scenario planning? How can it help you make better decisions<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future scenario planning is a method of anticipating all the possible outcomes of a decision. By doing this exercise, you’re more likely to make a rational decision and achieve a desirable result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more to learn how future scenario planning can be a useful tool for you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

How Future Scenario Planning Works<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

“Future scenario planning\u201d is an exercise where you imagine all the possible outcomes of a decision\u2014all the possible futures\u2014and try to guess the probability of each of these outcomes occurring<\/strong>. Just by weighing the possibilities and confronting your uncertainty, you\u2019ll be more likely to make a more rational decision. You’ll have a chance to prepare for negative outcomes, rather than being taken by surprise if they happen. You can set up barriers to your own irrational tendencies (like moving your alarm across the room). Your emotional response to either a failure or a success will be moderated\u2014you’re less likely to self-flagellate if things don’t go your way, because you braced yourself for that result in advance. You\u2019ll avoid the trap of resulting, or judging decisions based on the outcome rather than the thought process\u2014because you’ll have weighed the merits of the decision well before the outcome happened.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future scenario planning allows you to consider not only what the possible outcomes are, but also which outcomes to prioritize. If there’s a slim chance of getting your best-case scenario, but a very high chance of getting your second choice option, then the second choice probably has greater value to you. You can also consider the consequences that could follow each outcome, which could reveal pros or cons to each that you hadn’t previously considered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, imagine that you forgot to prepare for a big holiday dinner you\u2019re hosting tomorrow. Your two options are: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Order food from a nice restaurant nearby.
    1. Pro: convenience, professional cooking<\/li>
    2. Con: more expensive<\/li><\/ol><\/li>
    3. Rush out to the grocery store tonight and spend all day cooking tomorrow.
      1. Pro: cost-effective, more personal<\/li>
      2. Con: time-consuming<\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Let\u2019s say you lean toward option 1. But then you start future scenario planning: What are the ways that option #1 could go wrong? \u201cWrong\u201d in this case means that you don\u2019t get the result you want: delicious food and happy guests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n