{"id":47360,"date":"2021-08-24T05:24:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-24T09:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=47360"},"modified":"2021-09-02T18:31:41","modified_gmt":"2021-09-02T22:31:41","slug":"random-walk-hypothesis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/random-walk-hypothesis\/","title":{"rendered":"The Random Walk Hypothesis: Is the Market Random?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is the random walk hypothesis? How does it prove that the future of stocks doesn\u2019t depend on its past, but instead resemble a \u201crandom walk\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many investment theories<\/a> rest on the assumption that the past movements of stocks give an indication of future trends. However, Burton Malkiel\u2019s random walk hypothesis debunks this idea, claiming that the rise and fall of the stock market resembles a \u201crandom walk\u201d rather than any noticeable trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep reading for more about the random walk hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The Random Walk Hypothesis and Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Before looking at the random walk hypothesis in detail, it\u2019s important to understand technical analysis<\/a>. This is because the random walk hypothesis is one of the best arguments against technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical analysis relies on stock charts\u2014graphs of past price movements and trading volumes\u2014to predict future <\/em>price movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical analysts adhere to two primary principles: (1) that all economic data\u2014revenues, dividends, and future performance\u2014are reflected in a stock\u2019s past prices<\/strong>; and (2) that stock prices tend to follow <\/strong>trends<\/em><\/strong> (if a price is rising, it will continue to rise, and vice versa).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the technical analyst\u2019s core principles is that price trends tend to be self-fulfilling\u2014that is, if a stock\u2019s price is rising, it will continue to rise for no other reason than the trend itself<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers have found, however, that a stock\u2019s past doesn\u2019t reliably indicate its future<\/strong>. (Shortform note: Anyone who has read a fund\u2019s prospectus will have seen the disclaimer that \u201cpast performance is no guarantee of future results.\u201d) Although there\u2019s some evidence to suggest there are brief spells of market momentum, there are just as many sharp reversals in momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Random Walk Hypothesis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

When enough price data is compiled, what researchers have discovered is that stock prices resemble a \u201crandom walk\u201d\u2014a mathematical concept that describes a value moving randomly up or down in a succession of \u201csteps.\u201d A classic example of a random walk is flipping a coin: If one is using a fair coin, there\u2019s always a 50% chance one will flip either a head or a tail. The outcome of the flip is always random, and previous outcomes have no effect on present or future outcomes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although stock prices don\u2019t conform<\/a> precisely to the mathematical random walk\u2014Malkiel calls market movement a \u201cweak random walk\u201d\u2014enough comparative research has been done to establish that technical analysis doesn\u2019t consistently outperform buy-and-hold strategies<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means that in the long run, there\u2019s no discernable \u201cmomentum\u201d in stocks\u2019 prices\u2014rather, their price increases and decreases resemble a \u201crandom walk.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Problem of Randomness<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

One particularly problematic bias is our illusion of control<\/strong>: our perception that we can dictate events that are effectively random<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As noted above with regard to technical analysis, price movements in the market look more or less like the results of a coin flip or \u201crandom walk.\u201d Yet investors persist in seeing patterns in these movements<\/strong>\u2014for example, hot streaks or stock \u201cmomentum\u201d\u2014that cause them to make bad decisions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No matter how lucid and well-founded an investor’s value determination is, he or she simply cannot account for randomness<\/strong>\u2014the appearance of a groundbreaking technology, a new legal regime, or a \u201cBlack Swan\u201d (surprise event) like a public-health or environmental emergency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial history is littered with \u201csure things\u201d derailed by randomness; even utility stocks, which are widely seen as some of most consistent, are at the mercy of state authorities and global fuel dynamics. Cautionary tales are especially prevalent in pharmaceuticals<\/strong>. In 2013, Celsion Corporation lost 90% of its value due to a failed trial of a promising liver cancer drug. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Can We Learn?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Economist Burton Malkiel claims that Investors are better off putting their money in a passively managed index fund\u2014a<\/strong> total market index fund<\/strong>, to be precise\u2014than trading stocks themselves or investing in an actively managed mutual fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is supported by the random walk hypothesis, as investors can\u2019t control the randomness of the stock market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, an investor who put $10,000 into an S&P 500 Index Fund in 1969 would have had a $1,092,489 portfolio in April 2018 (assuming all dividends were reinvested). An investor who put the same amount of money into an actively managed fund would\u2019ve only had $817,741.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What is the random walk hypothesis? How does it prove that the future of stocks doesn\u2019t depend on its past, but instead resemble a \u201crandom walk\u201d? Many investment theories rest on the assumption that the past movements of stocks give an indication of future trends. However, Burton Malkiel\u2019s random walk hypothesis debunks this idea, claiming that the rise and fall of the stock market resembles a \u201crandom walk\u201d rather than any noticeable trends. Keep reading for more about the random walk hypothesis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":47470,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,31],"tags":[469],"class_list":["post-47360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-money","tag-a-random-walk-down-wall-street","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Random Walk Hypothesis: Is the Market Random? - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The random walk hypothesis states that the stock market resembles a "random walk" rather than any fixed trends. 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