{"id":47014,"date":"2021-08-23T05:23:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-23T09:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=47014"},"modified":"2021-09-02T18:27:06","modified_gmt":"2021-09-02T22:27:06","slug":"technical-vs-fundamental-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/technical-vs-fundamental-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical vs Fundamental Analysis: The Key Differences"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is the difference between technical vs fundamental analysis<\/a>? Why might a combination of both be the best approach?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical vs fundamental analysis are the two main methods of security analysis. Technical analysis<\/a> aims to predict future stock prices using graphs of past price movements, while fundamental analysis opts for an in-depth study of the firms’ balance sheets, taxes, and earnings. Each approach has its advantages and disadvantages. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep reading to find out the difference between technical vs fundamental analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Technical vs Fundamental Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The two primary methods of security analysis that financial professionals use are technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Here are the key differences between the two, and the recommended way to approach technical vs fundamental analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Technical analysis relies on stock charts\u2014graphs of past price movements and trading volumes\u2014to predict future <\/em>price movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical analysts adhere to two primary principles: (1) that all economic data\u2014revenues, dividends, and future performance\u2014are reflected in a stock\u2019s past prices<\/strong>; and (2) that stock prices tend to follow <\/strong>trends<\/em><\/strong> (if a price is rising, it will continue to rise, and vice versa).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamental Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Fundamental analysis attempts to predict a firm\u2019s <\/strong>future earnings and dividends by in-depth study<\/strong>. Fundamental analysts pore over firms\u2019 balance sheets, earnings reports, and tax rates; they even, on occasion, pay personal visits to companies to assess their management teams. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamental analysts also study the industry <\/em>in which a company is operating. They do so to understand what is making current companies successful in that space<\/strong>\u2014so they can recognize an innovator when it comes along. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Combining Technical vs Fundamental Analysis<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts actually use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis to place their bets. For investors looking to mix the two techniques, economist Burton Malkiel suggests adhering to three rules:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rule #1: Only Invest in Companies With Above-Average Expected Earnings for Five Years or More<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to investing, earnings growth is the key marker of success: Not only will a high-growth company reward your stake with increasingly generous dividends, its price-earnings multiple may rise as well (thereby increasing the value of your initial stake). Also, the longer the growth continues, the more your investment compounds in value<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rule #2: Only Pay What a Stock Is Really <\/em>Worth<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Although the \u201ctrue\u201d or \u201ccorrect\u201d value of a stock is ultimately impossible to determine\u2014because present values take into account future earnings, which cannot be predicted with certainty<\/em>\u2014it is <\/em>possible to tell whether a stock\u2019s price is within reason. The way to do this is to compare a stock\u2019s P\/E multiple with the market\u2019s multiple as a whole<\/strong>. If a growth stock\u2019s multiple is more or less in line with the market\u2019s, then that\u2019s probably a promising stock to invest in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The danger with this strategy comes when a promising stock\u2019s P\/E multiple already reflects its future revenue growth\u2014that is, when you have to pay a premium for the stock which, to some extent, offsets the growth. The solution is to buy growth stocks with P\/E multiples at or around the market\u2019s<\/strong>. That way you increase the odds of the \u201cdouble bonus\u201d described just above: You receive the benefits of the earnings growth as well as <\/em>the increase in the P\/E multiple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rule #3: Be on the Lookout for Castles in the Air<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Market enthusiasm, though it often leads to devastating bubbles, can also be used to the savvy investor\u2019s advantage. If you discover a stock that has sound fundamentals as well as a compelling story<\/strong>\u2014that is, one that is likely to produce steady returns while simultaneously attracting the interest of speculators\u2014then that\u2019s a stock worth considering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To identify a \u201ccastle in the air\u201d stock, simply think about whether the \u201cstory\u201d of the stock could catch fire\u2014for example, if the company has invented a new technology or its CEO has an impressive background or CV. Another simple way to pick a castle in the air is to see which stocks are beginning an uptrend<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical vs Fundamental Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The following advice is from economist and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street<\/a><\/em>, Burton Malkiel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Wall Street professionals today continue to use these methods of security analysis, the empirical evidence indicates that neither is a particularly reliable way<\/strong> to make investment decisions. This is the key to understanding technical vs fundamental analysis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding technical analysis<\/em>, the key finding among researchers is that a stock\u2019s past performance is no indication of its future performance<\/strong>. (In fact, stocks\u2019 price movements resemble a \u201crandom walk\u201d that\u2019s similar to the results of flipping a coin.) Any method of analysis that relies on stocks\u2019 \u201cmomentum\u201d\u2014whether a stock is generally moving either up or down\u2014is sure to prove faulty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding fundamental analysis, <\/em>no matter how lucid and well-founded a fundamentalist\u2019s value determination is, he or she simply cannot account for randomness<\/strong>\u2014the appearance of a groundbreaking technology, a new legal regime, or a catastrophic event like a public-health or environmental emergency. Fundamentalists can also make random mistakes in their analysis that result in bad bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s also the problem of bad actors<\/strong>. Firms can fudge their earnings reports, leading fundamental analysts astray. And fundamentalists\u2019 reports can be unduly influenced by their own employer\u2019s clients, resulting in conflicts of interest in their buy or sell recommendations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This exploration of technical vs fundamental analysis will help you better understand the two concepts, and the recommended approach to security analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What is the difference between technical vs fundamental analysis? Why might a combination of both be the best approach? Technical vs fundamental analysis are the two main methods of security analysis. Technical analysis aims to predict future stock prices using graphs of past price movements, while fundamental analysis opts for an in-depth study of the firms’ balance sheets, taxes, and earnings. Each approach has its advantages and disadvantages. Keep reading to find out the difference between technical vs fundamental analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":8692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,81,31],"tags":[469],"class_list":["post-47014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-economics","category-money","tag-a-random-walk-down-wall-street","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nTechnical vs Fundamental Analysis: The Key Differences - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is the difference between technical vs fundamental analysis? 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