{"id":4581,"date":"2019-11-23T07:50:03","date_gmt":"2019-11-23T11:50:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4581"},"modified":"2022-03-11T16:30:43","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T20:30:43","slug":"why-planning-is-important","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Planning Is Important, Even in an Uncertain World"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In an unpredictable world, why plan? Is there a way to prepare for unexpected events, even if we can&#8217;t exactly plan for them? Why is planning important?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll look at the concept of Nassim Nicholas Taleb&#8217;s &#8220;black swan&#8221; and explore why planning is important, even if the world is unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Planning Is Important<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Black Swans are extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. Some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-a-black-swan-event\/\">examples of Black Swan events<\/a> include World Wars I and II, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/importance-of-the-fall-of-the-berlin-wall\/\">fall of the Berlin Wall<\/a>, 9\/11, the rise of the Internet, the stock-market crash of 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis. Black swans are rare but they happen, and we can&#8217;t plan for them. So why plan?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb\u2019s thesis is that Black Swans, far from being insignificant or unworthy of systematic study, comprise the <em>most significant <\/em>phenomena in human history. We <em>should<\/em> study them, even if we can\u2019t predict them. Thus, counter-intuitively, we would be better served by concentrating our intellectual energies on what we <em>don\u2019t<\/em>\u2014nay, <em>can\u2019t\u2014<\/em>know, rather than on what we <em>do <\/em>and <em>can <\/em>know. Even if we can&#8217;t predict black swans, we can prepare for them&#8211;in other words, we can plan for them. If we don&#8217;t, we&#8217;ll be blindsided. This is why planning is important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why Plan?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>If prediction is impossible, and any human attempt to predict is ultimately futile, why do we continue to make forecasts or plans for the future? Why plan?<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, it\u2019s important to note that <strong>there <em>are <\/em>some areas of human experience where prediction is more viable than others<\/strong>. For example, the physical sciences have an enviable track record in terms of predicting phenomena, from the subatomic to the cosmic. Planning is important in the areas we actually can predict.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But second, there is evidence that humans are <em>biologically conditioned <\/em>to anticipate. In fact, it\u2019s possible that our ability to imagine future consequences from present actions\u2014an essential benefit of having <em>consciousness<\/em>\u2014is the evolutionary advantage that allowed us to develop into the earth\u2019s most advanced species. Why plan? It&#8217;s human&#8217;s superpower.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This advantage only serves us so far, however. In terms of avoiding immediate harm, our capacity for anticipation is essential. But when we try to anticipate the long-term workings of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-a-dynamic-system\/\">dynamical systems<\/a>, we inevitably get ourselves into trouble. But we shouldn&#8217;t give up planning altogether. When wondering, <em>Why plan?<\/em>, thinking about preparing rather than planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>If You Can\u2019t Predict or Plan, How Do You Deal with Uncertainty?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Although <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\">Taleb<\/a> is far more concerned with explaining why prediction is impossible than he is with proposing alternatives or solutions, he does offer some strategies for dealing with radical uncertainty. This is why planning is important.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1) Don\u2019t Sweat the Small Predictions<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to low-stakes, everyday predictions\u2014about the weather, say, or the outcome of a baseball game\u2014there\u2019s no harm in indulging our natural penchant for prediction and planning: If we\u2019re wrong, the repercussions are minimal. It\u2019s when we make large-scale predictions and incur real risk on their basis that we get into trouble.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2) Maximize Possibilities for Positive Black Swans<\/strong><strong><br><br><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>We can optimize our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/opportunities-for-success\/\">opportunities for success<\/a>. This is why planning is important. Although the most memorable Black Swans are typically the negatively disruptive ones, <strong>Black Swans can also be serendipitous<\/strong>. (Shortform note: Love at first sight is an example of a serendipitous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-theory\/\">Black Swan<\/a>.)<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two strategies for opening ourselves up to positive Black Swans are (1) sociability and (2) proactiveness when presented with an opportunity.&nbsp; Sociability puts us in the company of others who may be in a position to help us\u2014we never know where a casual conversation might lead. And proactiveness\u2014for example, taking up a successful acquaintance on an invitation to have coffee\u2014ensures we\u2019ll never miss our lucky break. This is why planning is important&#8211;it allows us to take advantage of chance.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3) Adopt the \u201cBarbell Strategy\u201d<\/strong><strong><em><br><br><\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>When Taleb was a trader, he pursued an idiosyncratic investment strategy to inoculate himself against a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-finance\/\">financial Black Swan<\/a>. He devoted 85%\u201390% of his portfolio to extremely safe instruments (Treasury bills, for example) and made extremely risky bets\u2014in venture-capital portfolios, for example\u2014with the remaining 10%\u201315%. (Another variation on the strategy is to have a highly speculative portfolio but to insure yourself against losses greater than 15%.) This is why planning is important. The high-risk portion of Taleb\u2019s portfolio was highly diversified: <strong>He wanted to place as many small bets as possible to increase the odds of a Black Swan paying off in his favor<\/strong>.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u201cbarbell strategy\u201d is designed to minimize the pain of a negative Black Swan while, potentially, reaping a positive Black Swan\u2019s benefits. If the market collapses, a person pursuing this strategy isn\u2019t hurt beneath the \u201cfloor\u201d of the safe investments (say, 85%), but if the market explodes, he has a chance to capitalize by virtue of the speculative bets.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>4) Distinguish Between Positive Contingencies and Negative Ones<\/strong><strong><em><br><br><\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Different areas of society have different exposure to Black Swans, both positive and negative. For example, scientific research and moviemaking are \u201cpositive Black Swan areas\u201d\u2014catastrophes are rare, and there is always the possibility of smashing success. The stock market or catastrophe insurance, meanwhile, are \u201cnegative Black Swan areas\u201d\u2014upsides are relatively modest compared to the possibility of financial ruin. <br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suffice it to say, <strong>we should take more risks in a positive Black Swan area than in a negative Black Swan one<\/strong>. Why plan? You can plan the way you risk, which will increase your chances of a positive outcome.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>5<\/strong><strong><em>) <\/em><\/strong><strong>Prepare, Don\u2019t Predict<\/strong><strong><em><br><br><\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Because Black Swans are, by definition, unpredictable, <strong>we\u2019re better off <em>preparing <\/em>for the widest range of contingencies than <em>predicting <\/em>specific events<\/strong>. This is another reason planning is important.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s because, though Black Swans themselves can never be predicted, their <em>effects <\/em>can be. For example, no one can predict when an earthquake will strike, but one can know what its effects will be and prepare adequately to handle them.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The same goes for an economic recession. No one can predict precisely when one will occur, but, using the \u201cbarbell strategy\u201d or some other means of mitigating risk, we can at least be prepared for one. This is why planning is important.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In an unpredictable world, why plan? Is there a way to prepare for unexpected events, even if we can&#8217;t exactly plan for them? Why is planning important? We&#8217;ll look at the concept of Nassim Nicholas Taleb&#8217;s &#8220;black swan&#8221; and explore why planning is important, even if the world is unpredictable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,43],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-4581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-philosophy","category-self-improvement","tag-black-swan","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Planning Is Important, Even in an Uncertain World - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In an unpredictable world, why plan? 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Learn from Nassim Taleb&#039;s &quot;black swan&quot; theory about why planning is important, even in a world of black swans.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-23T11:50:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-11T20:30:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-planning.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"780\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"515\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Amanda Penn\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/01b0e4c9ddb993e51d03808839d538b0\"},\"headline\":\"Why Planning Is Important, Even in an Uncertain World\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-23T11:50:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-11T20:30:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/\"},\"wordCount\":1056,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-planning.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"The Black Swan\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Philosophy\",\"Self-Improvement\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/\",\"name\":\"Why Planning Is Important, Even in an Uncertain World - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-planning-is-important\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-planning.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-23T11:50:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-11T20:30:43+00:00\",\"description\":\"In an unpredictable world, why plan? 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