{"id":4579,"date":"2019-11-22T07:50:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-22T11:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4579"},"modified":"2022-03-11T16:29:43","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T20:29:43","slug":"black-swan-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-fallacy\/","title":{"rendered":"Black Swan Fallacy: Why You See What You Want to See"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is the black swan<\/a> fallacy? How is it most famous today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The black swan fallacy is the tendency of people to ignore evidence that contradicts their beliefs and assumptions. This fallacy can also refer to the tendency to believe that things they’ve never witnessed don’t exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll cover the roots of the black swan fallacy and look at modern-day, black-swan-fallacy examples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The Black Swan Fallacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For millennia, it was universally accepted that all swans were white. In fact, this truth was so incontrovertible that logicians would often use it to illustrate the process of deductive reasoning. That classic deduction went like this:
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. All swans are white<\/li>
  2. The bird is a swan<\/li>
  3. The bird is white<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    But in 1697, Willem de Vlamingh, a Dutch explorer, discovered black swans while on a rescue mission in Australia\u2014and, in an instant, a universal, incontrovertible truth was shown to be anything but.
    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    After Vlamingh\u2019s discovery, philosophers used the term \u201cblack swan\u201d to describe a seeming logical impossibility that could very well end up being possible. This is the black swan fallacy.
    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a>, however, offers a new spin on the term “black swan fallacy.” He uses it to describe specific historical events with specific impacts<\/strong>. These events have three salient features:
    <\/p>\n\n\n\n