{"id":45410,"date":"2021-08-15T09:35:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-15T13:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=45410"},"modified":"2021-08-16T11:53:31","modified_gmt":"2021-08-16T15:53:31","slug":"superforecasting-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/superforecasting-review\/","title":{"rendered":"Superforecasting: Review, Context & Critical Reception"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Is Phillip Tetlock’s Superforcasting<\/em> worth reading? What was Tetlock’s inspiration in writing the book? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The idea for Superforecasting <\/em>came from Tetlock\u2019s experiences with the Expert Political Judgment and Good Judgment<\/a> Project forecasting experiments, during which Tetlock and his team discovered that some people are significantly better at predicting the future<\/a> than others. Tetlock and Gardner set out to explore exactly what sets \u201csuperforecasters\u201d apart from regular people; Superforecasting <\/em>is the result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This Superforecasting<\/em> review takes a look at the book’s intellectual context, background, impact, and discusses its key strengths and weaknesses. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superforecasting is the result of decades of research on \u201csuperforecasters\u201d: people who can predict future events with an accuracy better than chance.<\/strong> Superforecasters are intelligent, but more importantly, they\u2019re open-minded, deeply curious, and adept at sidestepping their own cognitive biases<\/a>. Not everyone is cut out to be a superforecaster<\/a>, but by studying the way superforecasters make predictions, anyone can improve their ability to predict the future<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is a quick Superforecasting<\/em> review. We’ll cover the book’s context, background, and critical reception. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the Authors<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Phillip Tetlock is a Canadian-American author and researcher <\/strong>focusing on good judgment, political psychology, and behavioral economics. <\/strong>He currently teaches at the University of Pennsylvania in the Wharton School of business as well as the departments of psychology and political science. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2011, Tetlock and his spouse, psychologist Barbara Mellers, co-founded the Good Judgment Project<\/a>, a research project involving more than twenty thousand amateur forecasters. The Project was designed to discover just how accurate the best human forecasters can be and what makes some people better forecasters than others. It led to Tetlock discovering a group of \u201csuperforecasters\u201d who could outperform professional intelligence analysts; these findings eventually inspired Superforecasting<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, the Good Judgment Project hosts training sessions on general forecasting techniques for both individuals and organizations as well as producing custom forecasts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Connect with Philip Tetlock:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n