{"id":4455,"date":"2019-11-22T11:14:06","date_gmt":"2019-11-22T15:14:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4455"},"modified":"2022-03-11T16:13:07","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T20:13:07","slug":"no-one-can-predict-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"No One Can Predict the Future: Here&#8217;s Why"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>No one can predict the future. But why? Why are some situations and events more predictable than others?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll cover the nature of predictability according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a> and look at why it is that no one can predict the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">No One Can Predict the Future: Why Not?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb, however, offers a new spin on the term &#8220;black swan&#8221;. <strong>He uses it to describe specific historical events with specific impacts<\/strong>. These events have three salient features:<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>They are \u201coutliers\u201d (that is, they are <em>statistically <\/em>insignificant);<\/li><li>They have profound real-world impacts; and<\/li><li>Despite (or perhaps because of) their extreme unpredictability, they compel human beings to account for them\u2014to explain <em>after the fact<\/em> that they were<em> <\/em>in fact<em> <\/em>predictable.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-a-black-swan-event\/\">examples of Black Swan events<\/a> include World Wars I and II, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/importance-of-the-fall-of-the-berlin-wall\/\">fall of the Berlin Wall<\/a>, 9\/11, the rise of the Internet, the stock-market crash of 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis. Black swans are one of the reasons that no one can predict the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb\u2019s thesis is that Black Swans, far from being insignificant or unworthy of systematic study, comprise the <em>most significant <\/em>phenomena in human history. We <em>should<\/em> study them, even if we can\u2019t predict them. Thus, counter-intuitively, we would be better served by concentrating our intellectual energies on what we <em>don\u2019t<\/em>\u2014nay, <em>can\u2019t\u2014<\/em>know, rather than on what we <em>do <\/em>and <em>can <\/em>know.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb also claims, also counter-intuitively, that <strong>the more our knowledge advances, the more likely we are to be blindsided by a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-theory\/\">Black Swan<\/a><\/strong>. This is because our knowledge is forever becoming more precise and specific and less capable of recognizing generality\u2014for example, the general tendency for earth-shattering events to be completely unforeseen (which, of course, is <em>why <\/em>they\u2019re earth-shattering).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Unreliability of \u201cExperts\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though no one can predict the future, many people try to. Taleb has very little patience for \u201cexperts\u201d\u2014academics, thought leaders, corporate executives, politicians, and the like. Throughout the book, Taleb illustrates how and why \u201cexperts\u201d are almost always wrong and have little more ability to predict the future than the average person.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two reasons \u201cexperts\u201d make <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/bad-predictions\/\">bad predictions<\/a> and no one can predict the future:<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1) Human Nature<\/strong><strong><br><br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Because of various habits innate to our species\u2014our penchant for telling stories, our belief in cause and effect, our tendency to \u201ccluster\u201d around specific ideas (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/confirmation-bias-definition-2\/\">confirmation bias<\/a>) and \u201ctunnel\u201d into specific disciplines or methods (specialization)\u2014we tend to miss or minimize randomness\u2019s effect on our lives. Experts are no less guilty of this blindspot than your average person. This is one reason no one can predict the future.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2) Flawed Methods<\/strong><strong><br><br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Because experts both (1) \u201ctunnel\u201d into the norms of their particular discipline and (2) base their predictive models exclusively on past events, their predictions are inevitably susceptible to the extremely random and unforeseen.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider, for example, a financial analyst predicting the price of a barrel of oil in ten years. This analyst may build a model using the gold standards of her field: past and current oil prices, car manufacturers\u2019 projections, projected oil-field yields, and a host of other factors, computed using the techniques of regression analysis. The problem is that this model is innately narrow. It can\u2019t account for the truly random\u2014a natural disaster that disrupts a key producer, or a war that increases demand exponentially.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb draws a key distinction between experts in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/extremistan\/\">Extremistan<\/a> disciplines (economics, finance, politics, history) and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/mediocristan\/\">Mediocristan<\/a> disciplines (medicine, physical sciences). Experts like biologists and astrophysicists are able to predict events with fair accuracy; experts like economists and financial planners are not. <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Difficulties of Prediction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The central problem with experts is their uncritical belief in the possibility of prediction, despite the mountain of evidence that indicates prediction is a fool\u2019s errand and that no one can predict the future. Some key illustrations of the futility of prediction include:<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Discoveries<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Most groundbreaking discoveries occur by happenstance\u2014luck\u2014rather than careful and painstaking work. The quintessential example is the discovery of penicillin. Discoverer Alexander Fleming wasn\u2019t researching antibiotics; rather, he was studying the properties of a particular bacterium. He left a stack of cultures lying out in his laboratory while he went on vacation, and when he returned he found that a bacteria-killing mold had formed on one of the cultures. <em>Voil\u00e1<\/em>\u2014the world\u2019s first antibiotic.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dynamical Systems<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-a-dynamic-system\/\">dynamical system<\/a> is one in which an array of inputs affect each other. Whereas prediction in a system that contains, say, two inputs, is a simple affair\u2014one need only account for the qualities and behavior of those two inputs\u2014prediction in a system that contains, say, five hundred billion inputs is effectively impossible. Because we live in a dynamical system, no one can predict the future.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most famous illustration of a dynamical system\u2019s properties is the \u201cbutterfly effect.\u201d This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. The \u201cbutterfly effect\u201d describes the possibility that the flutter of a butterfly\u2019s wings can, a few weeks later and many miles distant, cause a tornado.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Predicting the Past<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The past itself is as unknowable as the future. Because of how complex the world is and how a single event could be influenced by any number of tiny causes, we cannot <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-reverse-engineer\/\">reverse engineer<\/a> causes for events.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An example should help illustrate. Think of an ice cube sitting on a table. Imagine the shape of the puddle that ice cube will make as it melts.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now think of a puddle on the table and try to imagine how that puddle got there.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When historians propose causes for certain historical events, they\u2019re looking at puddles and imagining ice cubes (or a spilled glass of water, or some other cause). The problem is that the sheer number of possible causes for a puddle\u2014or a historical event\u2014render any ascription of cause suspect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>If You Can\u2019t Predict the Future, How Do You Deal with Uncertainty?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Although Taleb is far more concerned with explaining why no one can predict the future than he is with proposing alternatives or solutions, he does offer some strategies for dealing with radical uncertainty.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1) Don\u2019t Sweat the Small Predictions<\/strong><strong><br><br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to low-stakes, everyday predictions\u2014about the weather, say, or the outcome of a baseball game\u2014there\u2019s no harm in indulging our natural penchant for prediction: If we\u2019re wrong, the repercussions are minimal. It\u2019s when we make large-scale predictions and incur real risk on their basis that we get into trouble.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2) Maximize Possibilities for Positive Black Swans<\/strong><strong><br><br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the most memorable Black Swans are typically the negatively disruptive ones, <strong>Black Swans can also be serendipitous<\/strong>. (Shortform note: Love at first sight is an example of a serendipitous Black Swan.)<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two strategies for opening ourselves up to positive Black Swans are (1) sociability and (2) proactiveness when presented with an opportunity.&nbsp; Sociability puts us in the company of others who may be in a position to help us\u2014we never know where a casual conversation might lead. And proactiveness\u2014for example, taking up a successful acquaintance on an invitation to have coffee\u2014ensures we\u2019ll never miss our lucky break. Just because no one can predict the future doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t be ready to take advantage of lucky opportunities.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3) Adopt the \u201cBarbell Strategy\u201d<\/strong><strong><em><br><br><\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When Taleb was a trader, he pursued an idiosyncratic investment strategy to inoculate himself against a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-finance\/\">financial Black Swan<\/a>. He devoted 85%\u201390% of his portfolio to extremely safe instruments (Treasury bills, for example) and made extremely risky bets\u2014in venture-capital portfolios, for example\u2014with the remaining 10%\u201315%. (Another variation on the strategy is to have a highly speculative portfolio but to insure yourself against losses greater than 15%.) The high-risk portion of Taleb\u2019s portfolio was highly diversified: <strong>He wanted to place as many small bets as possible to increase the odds of a Black Swan paying off in his favor<\/strong>.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u201cbarbell strategy\u201d is designed to minimize the pain of a negative Black Swan while, potentially, reaping a positive Black Swan\u2019s benefits. If the market collapses, a person pursuing this strategy isn\u2019t hurt beneath the \u201cfloor\u201d of the safe investments (say, 85%), but if the market explodes, he has a chance to capitalize by virtue of the speculative bets.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>4) Distinguish Between Positive Contingencies and Negative Ones<\/strong><strong><em><br><br><\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Different areas of society have different exposure to Black Swans, both positive and negative. For example, scientific research and moviemaking are \u201cpositive Black Swan areas\u201d\u2014catastrophes are rare, and there is always the possibility of smashing success. The stock market or catastrophe insurance, meanwhile, are \u201cnegative Black Swan areas\u201d\u2014upsides are relatively modest compared to the possibility of financial ruin. <br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suffice it to say, <strong>we should take more risks in a positive Black Swan area than in a negative Black Swan one<\/strong>. Even if no one can predict the future, everyone should know where it makes sense to take the most risk.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>5<\/strong><strong><em>) <\/em><\/strong><strong>Prepare, Don\u2019t Predict<\/strong><strong><em><br><br><\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>No one can predict the future! Because Black Swans are, by definition, unpredictable, <strong>we\u2019re better off <em>preparing <\/em>for the widest range of contingencies than <em>predicting <\/em>specific events<\/strong>.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s because, though Black Swans themselves can never be predicted, their <em>effects <\/em>can be. For example, no one can predict when an earthquake will strike, but one can know what its effects will be and prepare adequately to handle them.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The same goes for an economic recession. No one can predict precisely when one will occur, but, using the \u201cbarbell strategy\u201d or some other means of mitigating risk, we can at least be prepared for one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No one can predict the future. But why? Why are some situations and events more predictable than others? We&#8217;ll cover the nature of predictability according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and look at why it is that no one can predict the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4471,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,9],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-4455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-philosophy","category-psychology","tag-black-swan","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>No One Can Predict the Future: Here&#039;s Why - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"No one can predict the future. But why? Learn the nature of predictability according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and when prediction is especially difficult.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No One Can Predict the Future: Here&#039;s Why\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"No one can predict the future. But why? Learn the nature of predictability according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb and when prediction is especially difficult.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-22T15:14:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-11T20:13:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-no-one-can-predict.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"476\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Amanda Penn\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/01b0e4c9ddb993e51d03808839d538b0\"},\"headline\":\"No One Can Predict the Future: Here&#8217;s Why\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-22T15:14:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-11T20:13:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\"},\"wordCount\":1615,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-no-one-can-predict.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"The Black Swan\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Philosophy\",\"Psychology\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\",\"name\":\"No One Can Predict the Future: Here's Why - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-no-one-can-predict.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-22T15:14:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-11T20:13:07+00:00\",\"description\":\"No one can predict the future. 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She\u2019s published dozens of articles and book reviews spanning a wide range of topics, including health, relationships, psychology, science, and much more. Amanda was a Fulbright Scholar and has taught in schools in the US and South Africa. Amanda received her Master's Degree in Education from the University of Pennsylvania.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/author\/amanda\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"No One Can Predict the Future: Here's Why - Shortform Books","description":"No one can predict the future. But why? 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