{"id":4416,"date":"2019-11-27T09:38:10","date_gmt":"2019-11-27T13:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4416"},"modified":"2022-03-11T16:08:52","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T20:08:52","slug":"cosmological-argument","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/","title":{"rendered":"Cosmological Argument: How It Distorts the Evidence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is the cosmological argument? Is it sound? What are the arguments <em>against <\/em>the cosmological argument?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The anthropic cosmological argument is the statement that human existence cannot be a random occurrence because of the specificity and number of factors that <em>provide <\/em>for that existence. This argument is touted by not only religious scholars but also physicists and philosophers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll cover the basics of the cosmological argument and explore the concept of &#8220;silent evidence,&#8221; the broader term for the lack of evidence in an argument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Cosmological Argument<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u201canthropic cosmological argument,&#8221; touted by physicists and philosophers alike, states that human existence cannot be a random occurrence because of the specificity and amount of factors that <em>provide <\/em>for that existence. In other words, the odds are so stacked against<em> <\/em>the fact of human existence, that the only possibility is that the world was created precisely to<em> allow <\/em>for our existence.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, what the anthropic cosmological argument suppresses is the evidence of all the other species that <em>didn\u2019t <\/em>thrive. We assume our beating the odds is the result of destiny, but it\u2019s really a matter of numbers: <strong>If you consider the incredible number of species competing for survival, it stands to reason <em>one\u2014<\/em>humans, in this case\u2014was going to win the jackpot<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Distortion of Silent Evidence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The cosmological argument distorts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/silent-evidence\/\">silent evidence<\/a>. History\u2014which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\">Taleb<\/a> defines as \u201cany succession of events seen with the effect of posterity\u201d\u2014is inevitably, necessarily distorted. That is, no matter how \u201cfactual\u201d or \u201cobjective,\u201d the historical record is always a product of our tendency to narrate and thus always <em>biased<\/em>.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What the narratives are biased <\/strong><strong><em>against <\/em><\/strong><strong>is <\/strong><strong><em>randomness<\/em><\/strong><strong>\u2014the inexplicability and importance of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-theory\/\">Black Swans<\/a><\/strong>.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take most CEOs\u2019 and entrepreneurs\u2019 (auto)biographies. These books attempt to draw a causal link between the CEO\/entrepreneur\u2019s (a) character traits, education, and business acumen and (b) later success. The \u201csilent evidence\u201d (which Taleb also calls \u201cthe cemetery\u201d) in these narratives<strong> is that there are many more people with the same attributes as the triumphant CEOs\/entrepreneurs who <em>failed<\/em>. <\/strong>The fact is, in business, like in so many other fields, <strong>the deciding factor is nothing other than <em>luck <\/em>(i.e., randomness).<\/strong> This is similar to the fallacy in the cosmological argument.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once we become attuned to the existence of \u201csilent evidence\u201d\u2014which we can think of as the \u201cflipside\u201d or contrary to any story we\u2019re told\u2014we can see it everywhere.&nbsp;<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, we base our knowledge of criminals and criminality on those that get caught (because the only criminals we know about are the ones that <em>get <\/em>caught). In other words, we have no real sense of how easy or hard it is to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-does-someone-manipulate-you\/\">get away with a crime<\/a>, because our notions about crime are formed solely by reports of <em>failed criminals<\/em>. Again, we&#8217;re lacking or ignoring information, as in the cosmological argument.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the case of criminality, our ignorance of silent evidence actually serves a socially positive function because it makes getting away with a crime look hard and thus dissuades would-be criminals. But silent evidence can also encourage socially detrimental behaviors, such as risk-taking. This is because the successful risk-takers are the ones whose story is told; the failed risk-takers end up in the cemetery (in Taleb\u2019s sense, but often literally as well).<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take, for example, Giacomo Casanova, the legendary ladies\u2019 man and adventurer. Casanova was blessed with infallible luck\u2014somehow he always managed to escape whatever predicament he found himself in. He believed he had a \u201clucky star\u201d that watched out for him.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>But for every Casanova, there are dozens of wannabe adventurers and seducers whose risks don\u2019t pay off. As in the <\/strong>cosmological argument, <strong>we get a skewed sense of the benefits of risk-taking because the successful risk-takers are the ones with the means to tell their tales.<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Taleb doesn\u2019t acknowledge that stories of risks that fail spectacularly\u2014from Bernie Madoff to Theranos to Lehman Brothers\u2014<em>do<\/em> get told quite often.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is the cosmological argument? Is it sound? What are the arguments against the cosmological argument? The anthropic cosmological argument is the statement that human existence cannot be a random occurrence because of the specificity and number of factors that provide for that existence. This argument is touted by not only religious scholars but also physicists and philosophers. We&#8217;ll cover the basics of the cosmological argument and explore the concept of &#8220;silent evidence,&#8221; the broader term for the lack of evidence in an argument.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4430,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,9],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-4416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-philosophy","category-psychology","tag-black-swan","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Cosmological Argument: How It Distorts the Evidence - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Anthropic cosmological arguments say that human existence can&#039;t be random because of the specificity and number of factors providing for that existence.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cosmological Argument: How It Distorts the Evidence\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Anthropic cosmological arguments say that human existence can&#039;t be random because of the specificity and number of factors providing for that existence.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-27T13:38:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-03-11T20:08:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-cosmological.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"779\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"517\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Amanda Penn\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Amanda Penn\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/01b0e4c9ddb993e51d03808839d538b0\"},\"headline\":\"Cosmological Argument: How It Distorts the Evidence\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-27T13:38:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-03-11T20:08:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/\"},\"wordCount\":676,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/swan-cosmological.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"The Black Swan\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Philosophy\",\"Psychology\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cosmological-argument\/\",\"name\":\"Cosmological Argument: How It Distorts the Evidence - 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