{"id":4380,"date":"2019-11-30T09:02:31","date_gmt":"2019-11-30T13:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4380"},"modified":"2022-03-11T15:45:21","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T19:45:21","slug":"naive-empiricism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/naive-empiricism\/","title":{"rendered":"Naive Empiricism: When Ignorance Makes You Smarter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is naive empiricism? How does it work to counter <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/confirmation-bias-definition-2\/\">confirmation bias<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Naive empiricism is the scientific practice of approaching a problem without any assumptions or expectations, relying solely on empirical evidence. This term is occasionally used differently in other fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll cover how naive empiricism combats confirmation bias and other <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cognitive-errors\/\">cognitive errors<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Error of Confirmation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Before we look at naive empiricism, let&#8217;s look at what it combats. All too often we draw <em>universal<\/em> conclusions from a <em>particular <\/em>set of facts. For example, if we were presented with evidence that showed a turkey had been fed and housed for 1,000 straight days, we would likely predict the same for day 1,001 and for day 1,100.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\">Taleb<\/a> calls this prediction the \u201cround-trip fallacy.\u201d <strong>When we commit the round-trip fallacy, we assume that \u201cno evidence of <em>x<\/em>\u201d\u2014where <em>x <\/em>is any event or phenomenon\u2014is the same as \u201cevidence of no <em>x<\/em>.\u201d<\/strong> When we make assumptions of this kind, we&#8217;re not practicing naive empiricism.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to drawing broad conclusions from narrow observations, we also have a tendency to <em>select<\/em> evidence on the basis of preconceived frameworks, biases, or hypotheses. For example, a scientist conducting an experiment may, often unconsciously, discount evidence that disconfirms her hypothesis in favor of the evidence that confirms it. This is the opposite of \u201cnaive empiricism.\u201d It\u2019s \u201cconfirmation bias.\u201d<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb\u2019s solution to confirmation bias is <strong>naive empiricism\u2014the rigorous search for disconfirming, rather than corroborating, evidence<\/strong>. This technique was pioneered by a philosopher of science named Karl Popper, who called it \u201cfalsification.\u201d The reason naive empiricism\/falsification is so effective is that <strong>we can be far more sure of wrong answers than right ones<\/strong>.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Is Naive Empiricism Necessary?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at an example that shows why naive empiricism is so necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Picture a turkey cared for by humans. It has been fed every day for its entire life by the same humans, and so it has come to believe the world works in a certain, predictable, and advantageous way. And it does&#8230;until the day before Thanksgiving.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Made famous by British philosopher Bertrand Russell (though, in his telling, the unlucky bird was a chicken), this story illustrates the problem with <em>inductive reasoning<\/em> (the derivation of general rules from specific instances). <strong>With certain phenomena\u2014marketing strategy, stock prices, record sales\u2014a pattern in the past is no guarantee of a pattern in the future<\/strong>.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Taleb\u2019s words, the turkey was a <em>sucker<\/em>\u2014it had full faith that the events of the past accurately indicated the future. Instead, it was hit with a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-theory\/\">Black Swan<\/a>, an event that completely upends the pattern of the past. (It\u2019s worth noting that the problem of inductive reasoning <em>is <\/em>the problem of Black Swans: Black Swans are possible because we lend too much weight to past experience.)<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the turkey illustration, we might assume that \u201cno evidence of the possibility of slaughter\u201d equals \u201cevidence of the impossibility of slaughter.\u201d To take a medical example, if a cancer screening comes back negative, there is \u201cno evidence of cancer,\u201d not \u201cevidence of no cancer\u201d (because the scan isn\u2019t perfect and could have missed something).<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another example of faulty inductive reasoning, this time from the world of finance, concerns the hedge fund Amaranth (ironically named after a flower that\u2019s \u201cimmortal\u201d), which incurred one of the steepest losses in trading history: $7 billion in less than a week. Just days before the company went into tailspin, Amaranth had reminded its investors that the firm employed twelve risk managers to keep losses to a minimum. The problem was that these risk managers\u2014or suckers\u2014based their models on the market\u2019s <em>past performance<\/em>.&nbsp;These assumptions resulted in a lack of naive empiricism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>In order not to be suckers, we must (1) cultivate a naive empiricism\u2014that is, a skepticism steeped in fact and observation\u2014and (2) remain vigilant against the innately human tendencies that leave us vulnerable to Black Swans.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is naive empiricism? How does it work to counter confirmation bias? Naive empiricism is the scientific practice of approaching a problem without any assumptions or expectations, relying solely on empirical evidence. This term is occasionally used differently in other fields. We&#8217;ll cover how naive empiricism combats confirmation bias and other cognitive errors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4409,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-4380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-philosophy","tag-black-swan","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Naive Empiricism: When Ignorance Makes You Smarter - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Naive empiricism is the practice of approaching a problem without assumptions, relying on empirical evidence. 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