{"id":4305,"date":"2019-11-29T18:35:55","date_gmt":"2019-11-29T22:35:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4305"},"modified":"2022-03-11T15:44:55","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T19:44:55","slug":"confirmation-bias-definition-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/confirmation-bias-definition-2\/","title":{"rendered":"What Is Confirmation Bias? Definition + Examples"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/cognitive-inertia\/\">confirmation bias<\/a>? What is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/confirmation-bias-definition\/\">confirmation bias definition<\/a>, and what are some clear confirmation bias examples?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Confirmation bias is the tendency to only see the evidence that confirms the beliefs you already hold. We <em>select<\/em> evidence on the basis of preconceived frameworks, biases, or hypotheses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll cover how confirmation bias occurs and why it means that &#8220;experts&#8221; often aren&#8217;t experts at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Is <strong>Confirmation<\/strong> Bias Theory?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>All too often we draw <em>universal<\/em> conclusions from a <em>particular <\/em>set of facts. For example, if we were presented with evidence that showed a turkey had been fed and housed for 1,000 straight days, we would likely predict the same for day 1,001 and for day 1,100.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/nassim-nicholas-taleb\/\">Taleb<\/a> calls this prediction the \u201cround-trip fallacy.\u201d <strong>When we commit the round-trip fallacy, we assume that \u201cno evidence of <\/strong><strong><em>x<\/em><\/strong><strong>\u201d\u2014where <\/strong><strong><em>x <\/em><\/strong><strong>is any event or phenomenon\u2014is the same as \u201cevidence of no <\/strong><strong><em>x<\/em><\/strong><strong>.\u201d<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, in the turkey illustration, we might assume that \u201cno evidence of the possibility of slaughter\u201d equals \u201cevidence of the impossibility of slaughter.\u201d To take a medical example, if a cancer screening comes back negative, there is \u201cno evidence of cancer,\u201d not \u201cevidence of no cancer\u201d (because the scan isn\u2019t perfect and could have missed something).<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What is confirmation bias? In addition to drawing broad conclusions from narrow observations, we also have a tendency to <em>select<\/em> evidence on the basis of preconceived frameworks, biases, or hypotheses. This is a confirmation bias definition. For example, a scientist conducting an experiment may, often unconsciously, discount evidence that disconfirms her hypothesis in favor of the evidence that confirms it. Taleb calls this habit \u201cnaive empiricism,\u201d but it\u2019s more commonly known as \u201cconfirmation bias.\u201d<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb\u2019s solution to naive empiricism\/confirmation bias is <em>negative empiricism<\/em>\u2014the rigorous search for disconfirming, rather than corroborating, evidence. This technique was pioneered by a philosopher of science named Karl Popper, who called it \u201cfalsification.\u201d The reason negative empiricism\/falsification is so effective is that <strong>we can be far more sure of wrong answers than right ones<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8220;Experts&#8221; and Confirmation Bias Examples<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>What is confirmation bias, and what does it have to do with experts? Taleb has very little patience for \u201cexperts\u201d\u2014academics, thought leaders, corporate executives, politicians, and the like. Throughout the book, Taleb illustrates how and why \u201cexperts\u201d are almost always wrong and have little more ability to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/no-one-can-predict-the-future\/\">predict the future<\/a> than the average person.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two reasons \u201cexperts\u201d make <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/bad-predictions\/\">bad predictions<\/a>, and they&#8217;re both related to confirmation bias:<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Example <strong>1) Human Nature<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br><\/strong>Because of various habits innate to our species\u2014our penchant for telling stories, our belief in cause and effect, our tendency to \u201ccluster\u201d around specific ideas (confirmation bias) and \u201ctunnel\u201d into specific disciplines or methods (specialization)\u2014we tend to miss or minimize randomness\u2019s effect on our lives. Experts are no less guilty of this blindspot than your average person.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Example <strong>2) Flawed Methods<br><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Because experts both (1) \u201ctunnel\u201d into the norms of their particular discipline and (2) base their predictive models exclusively on past events (a confirmation bias example), their predictions are inevitably susceptible to the extremely random and unforeseen.<br><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider, for example, a financial analyst predicting the price of a barrel of oil in ten years. This analyst may build a model using the gold standards of her field: past and current oil prices, car manufacturers\u2019 projections, projected oil-field yields, and a host of other factors, computed using the techniques of regression analysis. The problem is that this model is innately narrow. It can\u2019t account for the truly random\u2014a natural disaster that disrupts a key producer, or a war that increases demand exponentially. This is a version of confirmation bias.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taleb draws a key distinction between experts in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/extremistan\/\">Extremistan<\/a> disciplines (economics, finance, politics, history) and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/mediocristan\/\">Mediocristan<\/a> disciplines (medicine, physical sciences). Experts like biologists and astrophysicists are able to predict events with fair accuracy; experts like economists and financial planners are not.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is confirmation bias? What is the confirmation bias definition, and what are some clear confirmation bias examples? Confirmation bias is the tendency to only see the evidence that confirms the beliefs you already hold. We select evidence on the basis of preconceived frameworks, biases, or hypotheses. We&#8217;ll cover how confirmation bias occurs and why it means that &#8220;experts&#8221; often aren&#8217;t experts at all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4349,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,24],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-4305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psychology","category-society","tag-black-swan","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What Is Confirmation Bias? 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