{"id":42712,"date":"2021-07-18T10:23:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-18T14:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=42712"},"modified":"2021-07-20T15:46:31","modified_gmt":"2021-07-20T19:46:31","slug":"stock-market-psychology","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/","title":{"rendered":"The Psychology Behind the Stock Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>How do investors make money in the stock market? What factors do they use to base their investment decisions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to economist Tim Harford, stock market psychology is a nearly random walk that trends upwards. A report that says that stock prices will go up tomorrow, for example, will make stock prices go up today because people will buy them expecting them to go up tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this article, we&#8217;ll explain the basics of stock market trading, how prices are valued, and how investors decide what stocks to invest in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stock Market Investing Explained<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s difficult to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/make-more-money\/\">make more money<\/a> than an average investor in the market. This is because, if you\u2019re following the law (and not trading off of insider information), everyone is working with the same information. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Generally, as the world economy continues to grow, more people will put their money into the market. This leads to the upwards trend. It\u2019s <em>nearly <\/em>random because people who are well informed about market conditions can, on aggregate, make a little bit more money than the average investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When you buy a stock, you\u2019re buying a small part of the company. Theoretically, as a shareholder, you get back part of a company\u2019s profits. In practice, though, shares are more about <em>prospects <\/em>than <em>profits. <\/em>When a company makes a profit, it generally reinvests that money into growing its business. Companies spend money on the development of a new product or advertising of an existing one. As a shareholder in a company, you\u2019re betting that they\u2019ll have more success with their reinvestments and general growth than the market assumes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market, then, is less about companies\u2019 fundamentals and more about what other people think of a company\u2014this is at the crux of stock market psychology. Two English investors once got into a discussion about the stock price of Grolsch beer. Grolsch had taken off in London, and it was served at every major pub in the city. Grolsch hadn\u2019t found the same foothold in the rest of the country. However, a lot of big investors in England live in London. And many of the investors who live in London assumed, incorrectly, that Grolsch beer is popular everywhere. Thus, these investors thought that Grolsch stock was undervalued, bought a lot of the stock, and drove the price up.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if you <em>know <\/em>that Grolsch isn\u2019t popular in the rest of the country, if you realize that London\u2019s investors are about to buy a large quantity of Grolsch stock, you can get in at a lower price and make a lot of money. The fundamentals of the business catch up with the stock eventually. If Grolsch\u2019s quarterly reports don\u2019t show the growth that investors expect, they might start to sell-off. But if you\u2019re playing the stock market, buying and selling companies fairly frequently, the fundamentals of a company don\u2019t matter nearly as much as what other investors think about the quality of a company.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Running With the Crowd<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As the above example showed, when playing in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-economy\/\">stock economy<\/a> it\u2019s generally <strong>safest to run with the crowd. <\/strong>If a lot of people think a company is going to be successful, buy stock in it, because the stock price is likely to go up. This theory, though, also means that the stock market makes a lot of mistakes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Often, investors can get an entire industry wrong. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/dotcom-bubble-zero-to-one\/\">The dot com bubble<\/a> of the early 2000s happened because investors started investing a lot of money in every internet company, no matter how unsuccessful they looked. At the height of the bubble, the market was pricing internet companies as if they would grow more quickly in the future than <em>any group of companies ever.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some technology companies, like Microsoft, did have good fundamentals and withstood the bubble better than many. But lots of internet companies didn\u2019t have a clear growth plan, and so, after they couldn\u2019t report growth, came crashing back down to earth. <strong>Investors ran with the crowd upwards until the argument for historic growth became untenable. <\/strong>Then, they ran with the crowd on the way down. This sort of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/causes-of-groupthink\/\">groupthink<\/a> can lead to wild swings in the market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How do investors make money in the stock market? What factors do they use to base their investment decisions? According to economist Tim Harford, stock market psychology is a nearly random walk that trends upwards. A report that says that stock prices will go up tomorrow, for example, will make stock prices go up today because people will buy them expecting them to go up tomorrow. In this article, we&#8217;ll explain the basics of stock market trading, how prices are valued, and how investors decide what stocks to invest in.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":23103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,31],"tags":[430],"class_list":["post-42712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-money","tag-the-undercover-economist","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Psychology Behind the Stock Market - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"According to Tim Harford, the author of The Undercover Economist, stock market psychology is a random walk that trends upwards. Here is why.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Psychology Behind the Stock Market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to Tim Harford, the author of The Undercover Economist, stock market psychology is a random walk that trends upwards. Here is why.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-07-18T14:23:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-07-20T19:46:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/stock-market-invest-investor-computer-graphic-metics-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Darya Sinusoid\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Darya Sinusoid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Darya Sinusoid\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0421cce75bc249b11e2517b3a91f9c46\"},\"headline\":\"The Psychology Behind the Stock Market\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-18T14:23:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-07-20T19:46:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/\"},\"wordCount\":722,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/stock-market-invest-investor-computer-graphic-metics-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"The Undercover Economist\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economics\",\"Money\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/\",\"name\":\"The Psychology Behind the Stock Market - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/stock-market-psychology\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/stock-market-invest-investor-computer-graphic-metics-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-07-18T14:23:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-07-20T19:46:31+00:00\",\"description\":\"According to Tim Harford, the author of The Undercover Economist, stock market psychology is a random walk that trends upwards. 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