{"id":4212,"date":"2019-11-24T16:31:17","date_gmt":"2019-11-24T20:31:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4212"},"modified":"2022-03-11T15:37:33","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T19:37:33","slug":"dealing-with-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/dealing-with-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Dealing With Uncertainty: 5 Successful Strategies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Accurate predictions are hard to make. The world is full of uncertainty. How do you make plans when you can’t know the future? How do you deal with uncertainty?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll cover the difficulties with making accurate predictions and how to deal with uncertainty in an unpredictable world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Difficulties of Prediction<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Before we explore how to deal with uncertainty, let’s look at why there’s so much uncertainty in the first place. The central problem with experts is their uncritical belief in the possibility of prediction, despite the mountain of evidence that indicates prediction is a fool\u2019s errand. Some key illustrations of the futility of prediction include:
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discoveries<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Most groundbreaking discoveries occur by happenstance\u2014luck\u2014rather than careful and painstaking work. The quintessential example is the discovery of penicillin. Discoverer Alexander Fleming wasn\u2019t researching antibiotics; rather, he was studying the properties of a particular bacterium. He left a stack of cultures lying out in his laboratory while he went on vacation, and when he returned he found that a bacteria-killing mold had formed on one of the cultures. Voil\u00e1<\/em>\u2014the world\u2019s first antibiotic. Randomness is one reason we’re forced into dealing with uncertainty<\/a>.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dynamical Systems<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A dynamical system<\/a> is one in which an array of inputs affect each other. Whereas prediction in a system that contains, say, two inputs, is a simple affair\u2014one need only account for the qualities and behavior of those two inputs\u2014prediction in a system that contains, say, five hundred billion inputs is effectively impossible.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most famous illustration of a dynamical system\u2019s properties is the \u201cbutterfly effect.\u201d This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. The \u201cbutterfly effect\u201d describes the possibility that the flutter of a butterfly\u2019s wings can, a few weeks later and many miles distant, cause a tornado. Dynamical systems is another reason we find ourselves dealing with uncertainty.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicting the Past<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The past itself is as unknowable as the future. Because of how complex the world is and how a single event could be influenced by any number of tiny causes, we cannot reverse engineer<\/a> causes for events.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An example should help illustrate. Think of an ice cube sitting on a table. Imagine the shape of the puddle that ice cube will make as it melts.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now think of a puddle on the table and try to imagine how that puddle got there.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When historians propose causes for certain historical events, they\u2019re looking at puddles and imagining ice cubes (or a spilled glass of water, or some other cause). The problem is that the sheer number of possible causes for a puddle\u2014or a historical event\u2014render any ascription of cause suspect. The past isn’t explainable, and the future isn’t predictable, so we have to deal with uncertainty.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dealing with Uncertainty<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

How do we handle uncertainty? Although Taleb<\/a> is far more concerned with explaining why prediction is impossible than he is with proposing alternatives or solutions, he does offer some strategies for dealing with uncertainty.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1) Don\u2019t Sweat the Small Predictions<\/strong>

<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to low-stakes, everyday predictions\u2014about the weather, say, or the outcome of a baseball game\u2014there\u2019s no harm in indulging our natural penchant for prediction: If we\u2019re wrong, the repercussions are minimal. It\u2019s when we make large-scale predictions and incur real risk on their basis that we get into trouble. This is one way of dealing with uncertainty.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2) Maximize Possibilities for Positive Black Swans<\/strong>

<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Although the most memorable Black Swans are typically the negatively disruptive ones, Black Swans can also be serendipitous<\/strong>. (Shortform note: Love at first sight is an example of a serendipitous Black Swan<\/a>.)

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two strategies for opening ourselves up to positive Black Swans are (1) sociability and (2) proactiveness when presented with an opportunity.  Sociability puts us in the company of others who may be in a position to help us\u2014we never know where a casual conversation might lead. And proactiveness\u2014for example, taking up a successful acquaintance on an invitation to have coffee\u2014ensures we\u2019ll never miss our lucky break. This is another way of dealing with uncertainty.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3) Adopt the \u201cBarbell Strategy\u201d<\/strong>

<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A third way of dealing with uncertainty is to adopt the barbell strategy<\/a>. When Taleb was a trader, he pursued an idiosyncratic investment strategy to inoculate himself against a financial Black Swan<\/a>. He devoted 85%\u201390% of his portfolio to extremely safe instruments (Treasury bills, for example) and made extremely risky bets\u2014in venture-capital portfolios, for example\u2014with the remaining 10%\u201315%. (Another variation on the strategy is to have a highly speculative portfolio but to insure yourself against losses greater than 15%.) The high-risk portion of Taleb\u2019s portfolio was highly diversified: He wanted to place as many small bets as possible to increase the odds of a Black Swan paying off in his favor<\/strong>.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cbarbell strategy\u201d is designed to minimize the pain of a negative Black Swan while, potentially, reaping a positive Black Swan\u2019s benefits. If the market collapses, a person pursuing this strategy isn\u2019t hurt beneath the \u201cfloor\u201d of the safe investments (say, 85%), but if the market explodes, he has a chance to capitalize by virtue of the speculative bets.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4) Distinguish Between Positive Contingencies and Negative Ones<\/strong>

<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Different areas of society have different exposure to Black Swans, both positive and negative. For example, scientific research and moviemaking are \u201cpositive Black Swan areas\u201d\u2014catastrophes are rare, and there is always the possibility of smashing success. The stock market or catastrophe insurance, meanwhile, are \u201cnegative Black Swan areas\u201d\u2014upsides are relatively modest compared to the possibility of financial ruin.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suffice it to say, we should take more risks in a positive Black Swan area than in a negative Black Swan one<\/strong>. This is another way of dealing with uncertainty.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5<\/strong>) <\/em><\/strong>Prepare, Don\u2019t Predict<\/strong>

<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Because Black Swans are, by definition, unpredictable, we\u2019re better off <\/strong>preparing <\/em><\/strong>for the widest range of contingencies than <\/strong>predicting <\/em><\/strong>specific events<\/strong>.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s because, though Black Swans themselves can never be predicted, their effects <\/em>can be. For example, no one can predict when an earthquake will strike, but one can know what its effects will be and prepare adequately to handle them.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same goes for an economic recession. No one can predict precisely when one will occur, but, using the \u201cbarbell strategy\u201d or some other means of mitigating risk, we can at least be prepared for one. Preparing may be the best way to deal with uncertainty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Accurate predictions are hard to make. The world is full of uncertainty. How do you make plans when you can’t know the future? How do you deal with uncertainty? We’ll cover the difficulties with making accurate predictions and how to deal with uncertainty in an unpredictable world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,43],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-4212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psychology","category-self-improvement","tag-black-swan","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nDealing With Uncertainty: 5 Successful Strategies - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Accurate predictions are hard to make. In a world is full of uncertainty, how do you make plans and predictions? 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