{"id":4191,"date":"2019-11-29T22:14:37","date_gmt":"2019-11-30T02:14:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=4191"},"modified":"2022-03-11T15:35:27","modified_gmt":"2022-03-11T19:35:27","slug":"what-is-a-dynamic-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-a-dynamic-system\/","title":{"rendered":"What Is a Dynamic System? Why Reality is Unpredictable"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is a dynamic system? What is dynamical systems theory? Why do dynamic systems make it so hard to make accurate predictions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A dynamical system (dynamic system) is one in which an array of inputs affect each other. Whereas prediction in a system that contains, say, two inputs, is a simple affair\u2014one need only account for the qualities and behavior of those two inputs\u2014prediction in a system that contains, say, five hundred billion inputs is effectively impossible.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’ll cover the most famous dynamic system examples and explore why dynamical systems make it so hard to make accurate predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Dynamic Systems<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dynamic System Example: The most famous illustration of a dynamical system\u2019s properties is the \u201cbutterfly effect.\u201d This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. The \u201cbutterfly effect\u201d describes the possibility that the flutter of a butterfly\u2019s wings can, a few weeks later and many miles distant, cause a tornado.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poincar\u00e9\u2019s Nonlinearities<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Henry Poincar\u00e9, arguably the most highly regarded mathematician of the late 19th-century <\/em>in France, contributed to the theory of unpredictability by proposing the existence of nonlinearities<\/em>\u2014small phenomena that, as time goes on, can have profound consequences.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dynamic System Example: A seminal illustration of the concept is the \u201cthree-body problem.\u201d In a planetary system consisting of two planets (bodies), predictions about those planets\u2019 motion are easy to make: One need only account for the relation between the planets. But if a third <\/em>body enters the equation\u2014perhaps a comet, passing between the two planets\u2014the relation changes. Although the comet\u2019s effects may not be visible at first, the tiny forces it has exerted on the planets will compound with each cycle of the system, potentially resulting in massive changes. This is another demonstration of effects in a dynamic system.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each of these dynamic system examples illustrates the difficulty of making accurate predictions in a \u201cdynamical system,\u201d wherein there are multiple variables and even slight changes can drastically alter results. When it comes to dynamical systems, Poincar\u00e9 noted that the properties of the system can be observed and discussed, but there\u2019s no way to compute\u2014to use numbers\u2014<\/em>to describe the system<\/strong>.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suffice it to say, there is no more dynamic system than human society\u2014Extremistan.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hayek and <\/strong>Dynamic Systems<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a classical socialist society, all economic decisions\u2014allocation of resources, setting of prices, etc.\u2014are made by a single entity. Hayek<\/a> believed that a dynamical system like the economy was simply too complex for a single entity to master<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Information Is Always Incomplete<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Mathematicians and philosophers draw a distinction between \u201ctrue randomness\u201d and \u201cdeterministic chaos.\u201d A \u201crandom\u201d system is one whose operation is always and forever impossible to predict. A \u201cchaotic\u201d system is one whose operation could <\/em>be predicted, but whose complexity makes prediction so difficult that it\u2019s effectively impossible. That is, if we had the right information, we would be able to make sense of \u201cchaos.\u201d
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taleb<\/a> notes that, for normal people trying to make predictions about their stock portfolio, for example, or the appreciation of the value of their house, there\u2019s no difference between \u201ctrue randomness\u201d and \u201cdeterministic chaos.\u201d That\u2019s because when we\u2019re faced with a dynamic system, we always <\/em>lack the necessary information to decide whether it\u2019s truly random or simply chaotic.<\/strong>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such is the case with history as well: Perhaps each major historical event conforms to some incredibly complex plan\u2014that is, perhaps history is just chaotic, not random\u2014but we\u2019ll never have enough information<\/em> to discern that plan<\/strong>. This is due to the dynamic system of society.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What is a dynamic system? What is dynamical systems theory? Why do dynamic systems make it so hard to make accurate predictions? A dynamical system (dynamic system) is one in which an array of inputs affect each other. Whereas prediction in a system that contains, say, two inputs, is a simple affair\u2014one need only account for the qualities and behavior of those two inputs\u2014prediction in a system that contains, say, five hundred billion inputs is effectively impossible. We’ll cover the most famous dynamic system examples and explore why dynamical systems make it so hard to make accurate predictions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,25],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-4191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-philosophy","category-statistics","tag-black-swan","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Is a Dynamic System? Why Reality is Unpredictable - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A dynamic system has an array of inputs affect each other. 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