{"id":36076,"date":"2021-05-25T11:57:48","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T15:57:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=36076"},"modified":"2021-06-06T21:17:57","modified_gmt":"2021-06-07T01:17:57","slug":"the-turkey-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What’s the turkey problem? How does this concept help explain antifragility?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The turkey problem is fairly simple. If a turkey is fed by a butcher regularly, the turkey comes to predict and expect this system to continue. It is dependent. But one day, it all changes and the turkey learns how vulnerable he is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more about the turkey problem in Antifragile<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The Problem<\/strong> With Being a Turkey<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another perfect example of Extremistan<\/a> is the life of a turkey raised by a butcher. The turkey spends months being fed and cared for every day, without fail. The turkey trusts, perhaps even loves, the butcher. Every day the turkey gets more confident that the butcher will keep feeding and caring for it forever; and it\u2019s right, until the fateful day when it\u2019s wrong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The irony here is that the \u201csystem\u201d falls apart right at the moment when the turkey is most confident in it. The same thing happens with large corporations, authoritarian governments, and even overprotected children\u2014a child who lives in a bubble (literal or metaphorical) may be very confident in her own invulnerability, only to learn that she\u2019s actually dreadfully vulnerable once that bubble is punctured. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The turkey and the child both made the same crucial error: They saw no evidence that something was dangerous, and took it as evidence that the thing was not <\/em>dangerous. The turkey was blindsided by the butcher\u2019s knife, and the child by disease, or injury, or the general cruelty of the outside world. Both used their past experiences to try to predict the future<\/a>, only to learn in the harshest possible ways that the future is unpredictable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: For more of Taleb\u2019s thoughts on unpredictable events and the unusually large impacts they can have, read our summary of The Black Swan<\/em>.<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key to avoiding being a turkey<\/strong>\u2014or a child in a bubble\u2014is to recognize the difference between genuine and artificial stability.<\/strong> Is a system stable, or even antifragile, because it can absorb shocks and adapt to them? Or does it only seem <\/em>stable because outside forces are temporarily keeping it that way? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What’s the turkey problem? How does this concept help explain antifragility? The turkey problem is fairly simple. If a turkey is fed by a butcher regularly, the turkey comes to predict and expect this system to continue. It is dependent. But one day, it all changes and the turkey learns how vulnerable he is. Read more about the turkey problem in Antifragile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":36081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,24],"tags":[295],"class_list":["post-36076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psychology","category-society","tag-antifragile","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In the book Antifragile, the turkey problem helps explain why it's dangerous to depend on stability\u2014and why you are always vulnerable.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the book Antifragile, the turkey problem helps explain why it's dangerous to depend on stability\u2014and why you are always vulnerable.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-05-25T15:57:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-06-07T01:17:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"533\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carrie Cabral\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Carrie Cabral\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Carrie Cabral\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56\"},\"headline\":\"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-25T15:57:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-06-07T01:17:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/\"},\"wordCount\":368,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"Antifragile\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Psychology\",\"Society\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/\",\"name\":\"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-25T15:57:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-06-07T01:17:57+00:00\",\"description\":\"In the book Antifragile, the turkey problem helps explain why it's dangerous to depend on stability\u2014and why you are always vulnerable.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg\",\"width\":800,\"height\":533},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Shortform Books\",\"description\":\"The World's Best Book Summaries\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Shortform Books\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png\",\"width\":500,\"height\":74,\"caption\":\"Shortform Books\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56\",\"name\":\"Carrie Cabral\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Carrie Cabral\"},\"description\":\"Carrie has been reading and writing for as long as she can remember, and has always been open to reading anything put in front of her. She wrote her first short story at the age of six, about a lost dog who meets animal friends on his journey home. Surprisingly, it was never picked up by any major publishers, but did spark her passion for books. Carrie worked in book publishing for several years before getting an MFA in Creative Writing. She especially loves literary fiction, historical fiction, and social, cultural, and historical nonfiction that gets into the weeds of daily life.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/author\/carrie\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability - Shortform Books","description":"In the book Antifragile, the turkey problem helps explain why it's dangerous to depend on stability\u2014and why you are always vulnerable.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability","og_description":"In the book Antifragile, the turkey problem helps explain why it's dangerous to depend on stability\u2014and why you are always vulnerable.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/","og_site_name":"Shortform Books","article_published_time":"2021-05-25T15:57:48+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-06-07T01:17:57+00:00","og_image":[{"width":800,"height":533,"url":"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Carrie Cabral","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Carrie Cabral","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/"},"author":{"name":"Carrie Cabral","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56"},"headline":"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability","datePublished":"2021-05-25T15:57:48+00:00","dateModified":"2021-06-07T01:17:57+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/"},"wordCount":368,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg","keywords":["Antifragile"],"articleSection":["Psychology","Society"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/","name":"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability - Shortform Books","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg","datePublished":"2021-05-25T15:57:48+00:00","dateModified":"2021-06-07T01:17:57+00:00","description":"In the book Antifragile, the turkey problem helps explain why it's dangerous to depend on stability\u2014and why you are always vulnerable.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg","width":800,"height":533},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-turkey-problem\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Turkey Problem: Explaining Vulnerability"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/","name":"Shortform Books","description":"The World's Best Book Summaries","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"Shortform Books","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png","width":500,"height":74,"caption":"Shortform Books"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56","name":"Carrie Cabral","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Carrie Cabral"},"description":"Carrie has been reading and writing for as long as she can remember, and has always been open to reading anything put in front of her. She wrote her first short story at the age of six, about a lost dog who meets animal friends on his journey home. Surprisingly, it was never picked up by any major publishers, but did spark her passion for books. Carrie worked in book publishing for several years before getting an MFA in Creative Writing. She especially loves literary fiction, historical fiction, and social, cultural, and historical nonfiction that gets into the weeds of daily life.","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/author\/carrie\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/turkeys-woods-animals-two-pair.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36076"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37761,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36076\/revisions\/37761"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}