{"id":2576,"date":"2019-11-06T17:12:39","date_gmt":"2019-11-06T21:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=2576"},"modified":"2022-03-09T10:47:58","modified_gmt":"2022-03-09T14:47:58","slug":"illusion-of-validity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/illusion-of-validity\/","title":{"rendered":"Illusion of Validity: Think You Make Good Predictions?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

What is the illusion of validity? Why is it an illusion, and why is it a problem?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The illusion of validity is the tendency to be overconfident about our skills of prediction. We’re especially vulnerable to the illusion of validity when faced with data points that seem to form a coherent narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Learn what the illusion of validity is and why it happens, with examples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

The <\/strong>Illusion of Validity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The illusion of validity is the result of overconfidence and our tendency to form narratives around random details and events. With all the heuristics and biases<\/a> described above working against us, when we construct satisfying stories about the world, we vastly overestimate how much we understand about the past, present, and future.
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We desire a coherent story of the world. This comforts us in a world that may be largely random<\/strong>. If it\u2019s a good story, you believe it. This is one factor of the illusion of validity.
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Insidiously, the fewer data points you receive, the more coherent the story you can form. You often don\u2019t notice how little information you actually have and don\u2019t wonder about what is missing. You focus on the data you have, and you don\u2019t imagine all the events that failed to happen (the nonevents). You ignore your ignorance.<\/strong> This is why the illusion of validity is an illusion.
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The ultimate test of an explanation is whether it can predict future events accurately. <\/strong>This is the guideline by which you should assess the merits of your beliefs. This will help you avoid the illusion of validity.
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The Illusion of Validity and the Hindsight Bias<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The hindsight bias<\/a> is related to the illusion of validity. Once we know the outcome, we connect the dots in the past that make the outcome seem inevitable and predictable. 
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Insidiously, you don\u2019t remember how uncertain you were in the past<\/strong>\u2014once the outcome is revealed, you believe your past self was much more certain than you actually were! It might even be difficult to believe you ever felt differently. In other words, \u201cI knew it all along.\u201d You rewrite the history of your mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Professional forecasters (eg experts who show up on talk shows) perform no better than chance in predicting events. This might also be because they\u2019re hired for their charisma and vocalness, not accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hindsight bias is a problem because it inflates our confidence about predicting the future<\/a><\/strong> and contributes to the illusion of validity. If we are certain that our past selves were amazing predictors of the future, we believe our present selves to be no worse.
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Shortform note: antidotes to hindsight bias, and therefore the illusion of validity, include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n