{"id":23191,"date":"2021-01-10T18:15:28","date_gmt":"2021-01-10T22:15:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=23191"},"modified":"2026-01-22T22:34:46","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T02:34:46","slug":"black-swan-negotiation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-negotiation\/","title":{"rendered":"Negotiation Black Swan: The Last Piece of the Puzzle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-theory\/\">What is a Black Swan<\/a> in negotiation? What kind of information does it contain?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Black Swan in negotiation is some hidden piece of information that, if it <em>were<\/em> known, would completely transform the dynamic of the negotiation and the final outcome. Finding the Black Swan is the last piece of the puzzle to succeed in a negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep reading to learn how to find a Black Swan in every negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-types-of-information-in-every-negotiation\"><strong>Types of Information<\/strong> in Every Negotiation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There are three types of information. There are <em>known knowns<\/em>. This is what we know for sure. <strong>Things like your counterpart\u2019s name, their offer, and your experience from past negotiations are known knowns<\/strong>. Unfortunately, you can be tunnel-visioned by them and wrongly assume that this is the <em>only<\/em> kind of information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, there are <em>known unknowns<\/em>. <strong>This is information that we know exists but that we don\u2019t possess ourselves. <\/strong>In a poker game, for example, you know that there are wild cards: you just don\u2019t know who has them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-negotiation-black-swan-the-last-piece-of-the-puzzle\">Negotiation <strong>Black Swan<\/strong>: The Last Piece of the Puzzle<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Lastly, there are <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/unknown-unknowns\/\">unknown unknowns<\/a><\/em>. <strong>This is the information that we lack\u2014 and don\u2019t know that we lack. These are Black Swans<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Your counterpart might not <em>know <\/em>how important their Black Swan is. Your task is to uncover it by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-ask-the-right-questions\/\">asking the right questions<\/a>. In a negotiation, those who can best identify and exploit the unknown unknowns come out on top.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform example: let\u2019s say you were looking to buy a house from someone. If, in the course of your negotiation with the seller, you discovered that they were facing some sort of external financial pressures (from a lawsuit or a job loss), you would have great leverage over them. This information would tell you that your counterpart was a highly motivated seller who would likely accept a heavily discounted offer from you. This is a Black Swan: something you didn\u2019t know before, didn\u2019t know that you didn\u2019t know, and that completely reshapes the negotiating environment.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-finding-the-black-swan-in-a-negotiation\"><strong>Finding the Black Swan<\/strong> in a Negotiation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So how do you find the Black Swan in every negotiation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Get face-time to pick up verbal and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/body-language-crucial-conversations\/\">body language<\/a> cues. <\/strong>You miss too much with impersonal media like email. You won\u2019t hear their tone of voice, and you won\u2019t see the unplanned, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/nonverbal-cues\/\">non-verbal signals<\/a> that they might be sending you. Remember the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/7-38-55-rule\/\">7-38-55 Rule<\/a>. If you\u2019re just getting the words, you\u2019re only getting 7 percent of the message. Likewise, email gives your counterpart too much time to rehearse their responses and stall for time. You\u2019ll miss the little, unguarded, spontaneous moments that can tell you so much.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Pay attention to the unguarded moments. <\/strong>The first few minutes of a meeting and the last few present particularly rich opportunities for information-gathering. Look for interruptions, odd exchanges, and signs of division between team members if you\u2019re dealing with a group.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Exploit the Similarity Principle<\/strong>. Look for what you have in common. Build a rapport with your counterpart and create a conversational, even confidential atmosphere. By doing this, you take your counterpart out of their \u201cnegotiation\u201d mindset. They don\u2019t think that they\u2019re negotiating with an adversary, they think they\u2019re just having a conversation with a like-minded and empathetic individual. In doing so, they\u2019ll start to reveal key bits of valuable information to you that they otherwise wouldn\u2019t. They\u2019ll be more comfortable with you and more willing to divulge information to you if they think you share an affinity.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-speaking-your-counterpart-s-language\"><strong>Speaking Your Counterpart\u2019s Language<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Black Swans give you key insight into how your counterpart sees the world. Once you know this, you\u2019ve cracked the code: you can speak to them fluently in a language they understand.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You access their hidden area, their deeper desires. This gives you great insight into their behavior and will enable you to predict what they\u2019ll do next. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/when-we-dont-understand\/\">When you don\u2019t understand<\/a> your counterpart\u2019s behavior, avoid the trap of thinking that they\u2019re \u201ccrazy.\u201d <\/strong>They have a different worldview and their actions most likely make sense to them in the context of that worldview.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Think back to the earlier example of the Filipino terrorist and kidnapper Abu Sabaya.To outside observers, his actions were insane, reckless, and morally indefensible. But they made perfect sense to Sabaya: in his worldview, he was a freedom fighter for the Muslim minority, fighting the good fight against powerful oppressors. <em>Any <\/em>action would defensible in order to combat the evil forces that Sabaya believed he was up against. Still, the hostage negotiators needed to become fully immersed in Sabaya\u2019s understanding of the world, as irrational and morally repugnant as it may have seemed to them. It was the only way they would be able to have any kind of dialogue with him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What <em>looks<\/em> like crazy behavior by your counterpart may really be rational, because:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>They have bad or incomplete information.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They face external constraints that prevent them from making a deal and are too embarrassed to admit it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They have other wants, needs, incentives, agendas.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-finding-negotiation-black-swan-example-1\">Finding <strong>Negotiation <strong>Black Swan<\/strong>: Example 1<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In 1981, an armed man named William Griffin took hostages at a Rochester bank. Police expected it to be a straightforward hostage negotiation where nobody ended up getting killed. Based on prior experience, this was the most likely outcome. However, Griffin shocked police and onlookers by executing one of his hostages whom he had instructed to walk out of the bank\u2019s front doors. Griffin then proceeded to calmly walk out of the bank, where he was immediately killed by police sniper fire.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This baffled police and the FBI. Why would anyone kill a hostage? A kidnapper <em>needs <\/em>hostages, otherwise they don\u2019t have any leverage. The whole point is to <em>threaten <\/em>to harm them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But in this case, the authorities made the tragic mistake of not understanding Griffin\u2019s real motivations. Griffin wasn\u2019t after money, or recognition, nor was he pursuing some sort of political agenda. His real motivation was to die: and he knew that executing a hostage would provoke the police into shooting him (the case was one of the first of what\u2019s now called suicide-by-cop).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The tragic killing of the hostage happened because t<strong>he authorities failed to recognize Griffin\u2019s true wants, needs, and incentives. <\/strong>This was a classic Black Swan: something that the authorities didn\u2019t know, didn\u2019t even consider (because it had never happened before), and would have completely changed their response had they known it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-finding-negotiation-black-swan-example-2\">Finding <strong>Negotiation Black Swan: Example <\/strong>2<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0The story of Dwight Watson presents the opposite case. This was an instance where the authorities successfully identified a Black Swan and used it to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/hub\/personal-life\/relationships\/personal\/how-to-de-escalate\/\">de-escalate<\/a> what could have been a dangerous situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2003, a North Carolina tobacco farmer named Dwight Watson drove a tractor full of (what he claimed were) explosives to Washington, D.C. He said he was doing this to bring attention to the economic woes of the country\u2019s tobacco farmers and to protest what he believed to be the government\u2019s complicity in the farmers\u2019 plight.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In their discussions with him, the FBI learned that he was a devout Christian. They discovered this through close observation and analysis of references Watson made as he was speaking to the negotiators. This Black Swan gave the authorities valuable insight into Watson\u2019s state of mind, his motivations, and how to craft appeals to his religious ideals that would let him surrender without losing face.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the days during this standoff happened to be the Dawn of the Third Day, when Christians believe that Jesus rose up out of the tomb and ascended to heaven. The FBI used the Black Swan of Watson\u2019s devout Christianity to speak to him in his native language. They said, \u201cIf Jesus could come out on this day, so can you.\u201d He surrendered immediately after.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This worked because<strong> the authorities put in the hard work to gain a holistic understanding of Watson\u2019s view of the world<\/strong>. They were thorough: double-checking, comparing notes, and using back-up listeners. Above all, they were willing to <em>listen<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is a Black Swan in negotiation? What kind of information does it contain? A Black Swan in negotiation is some hidden piece of information that, if it were known, would completely transform the dynamic of the negotiation and the final outcome. Finding the Black Swan is the last piece of the puzzle to succeed in a negotiation. Keep reading to learn how to find a Black Swan in every negotiation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":18199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,9],"tags":[185],"class_list":["post-23191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-communication","category-psychology","tag-never-split-the-difference","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Negotiation Black Swan: The Last Piece of the Puzzle - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In negotiation, a Black Swan is a piece of information that you lack, but don\u2019t know that you lack. Your task as a negotiator is to find it.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/black-swan-negotiation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Negotiation Black Swan: The Last Piece of the Puzzle\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In negotiation, a Black Swan is a piece of information that you lack, but don\u2019t know that you lack. 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