{"id":16841,"date":"2020-10-24T22:36:01","date_gmt":"2020-10-25T02:36:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=16841"},"modified":"2020-10-31T23:46:17","modified_gmt":"2020-11-01T03:46:17","slug":"complicated-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/","title":{"rendered":"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is a complicated system? How does it work, and how is it different from other systems? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A complicated system is when a system is made up of multiple stocks, flows, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/feedback-loop-meaning\/\">feedback loops<\/a>, and more. Most systems we recognize in our world are complicated systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read more about complicated systems and how they work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Building a Complicated System<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In reality, systems are very complex. There are many, many complicated systems, even though both simple and complex systems in the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>A single stock may not just have an inflow and outflow, but really have multiple flows in and out, as well as multiple balancing and reinforcing loops working in opposite directions.<\/li><li>A single flow may affect dozens of stocks.<\/li><li>Feedback loops affect each other, reinforcing each other or balancing each other.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, the world population has an inflow representing birth rate, but birth rate is influenced by a vast number of inputs, such as the overall economy, healthcare, and politics, which are themselves complicated systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll take what we\u2019ve learned and build up to more complicated systems, which are simplistic models of real-world systems. The author calls this collection of systems a \u201czoo,\u201d which is an appropriate metaphor. Like in a zoo, these animals are removed from their natural complex ecosystem and put in an artificially simplistic environment for observation. But they give a hint of patterns in the real world and yield surprisingly insightful lessons in both simple and complex systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Fixing Oscillations<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Oscillations can cause more problems, especially in complicated systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How do you fix this? One intuitive reaction is to see the delays as bad. Surely, shortening the reaction time should solve the problem! The car manager decides to shorten her perception delay, reacting to two days\u2019 data instead of three, and shortening her response delay, ordering the entire shortfall in one go, rather than spacing it out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This actually makes things worse. The oscillations increase dramatically:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/S-L7Yt4dqX9SA8X_yJr126T7YaHpdhi6PdddeFu-COOqJsTPFIpnyK0anMzdibIbZ6OpUPLzScLdYd8yk2Zf4TetZgwktcOVfyLPJnP6T2Q-tjlBwZ1AKG8CfR4RMt2nCpjTJ4X4\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: this graph is an approximation to illustrate the point. System analysts build quantitative models to produce more accurate charts.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In essence, <strong>shorter delays cause larger overreactions<\/strong>\u2014at the car lot\u2019s lowest points, the manager places large orders multiple times in succession. This causes a huge buildup of cars, which takes a long time to draw down. The cycle repeats in complex systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Counter-intuitively, the better reaction to oscillations is actually to slow reaction time.<\/strong> Oscillations are a sign of overreacting. The manager should under-react\u2014if she increased her delays from 3 days to 6 days, the oscillations would dampen quite a lot:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Importance of Delays<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>As you\u2019ve seen, delays affect systems a lot, in somewhat unpredictable ways. That\u2019s why systems thinkers are obsessed with identifying delays and studying their impact in simple and complex systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This example just represents a single simple car lot. Imagine things like this happening throughout the broader economy, in hundreds of thousands of places, all interconnected. All the car lots around the world are connected to the manufacturer, which is connected to the parts makers, who are connected to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/bargaining-power-of-suppliers-understanding-michael-porter\/\">suppliers<\/a> of steel, rubber, electronics. Every single member here has its own idiosyncratic delays and oscillations\u2014imagine the coordination it takes to produce new cars and ship them nationwide!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is a complicated system? How does it work, and how is it different from other systems? A complicated system is when a system is made up of multiple stocks, flows, feedback loops, and more. Most systems we recognize in our world are complicated systems. Read more about complicated systems and how they work.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":16845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,14],"tags":[139],"class_list":["post-16841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-communication","category-management","tag-thinking-in-systems","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Complicated System: What You Need to Know - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is a complicated system? All systems are different, even if the basics are the same. Complicated systems have stocks, flows, and more.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What is a complicated system? All systems are different, even if the basics are the same. Complicated systems have stocks, flows, and more.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-25T02:36:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-11-01T03:46:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1596\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carrie Cabral\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Carrie Cabral\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Carrie Cabral\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56\"},\"headline\":\"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-25T02:36:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-11-01T03:46:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/\"},\"wordCount\":549,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Thinking in Systems\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Communication\",\"Management\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/\",\"name\":\"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-25T02:36:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-11-01T03:46:17+00:00\",\"description\":\"What is a complicated system? All systems are different, even if the basics are the same. Complicated systems have stocks, flows, and more.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg\",\"width\":2560,\"height\":1596},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"Shortform Books\",\"description\":\"The World&#039;s Best Book Summaries\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Shortform Books\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png\",\"width\":500,\"height\":74,\"caption\":\"Shortform Books\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56\",\"name\":\"Carrie Cabral\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Carrie Cabral\"},\"description\":\"Carrie has been reading and writing for as long as she can remember, and has always been open to reading anything put in front of her. She wrote her first short story at the age of six, about a lost dog who meets animal friends on his journey home. Surprisingly, it was never picked up by any major publishers, but did spark her passion for books. Carrie worked in book publishing for several years before getting an MFA in Creative Writing. She especially loves literary fiction, historical fiction, and social, cultural, and historical nonfiction that gets into the weeds of daily life.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/author\/carrie\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know - Shortform Books","description":"What is a complicated system? All systems are different, even if the basics are the same. Complicated systems have stocks, flows, and more.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know","og_description":"What is a complicated system? All systems are different, even if the basics are the same. Complicated systems have stocks, flows, and more.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/","og_site_name":"Shortform Books","article_published_time":"2020-10-25T02:36:01+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-11-01T03:46:17+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1596,"url":"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Carrie Cabral","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Carrie Cabral","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/"},"author":{"name":"Carrie Cabral","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56"},"headline":"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know","datePublished":"2020-10-25T02:36:01+00:00","dateModified":"2020-11-01T03:46:17+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/"},"wordCount":549,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg","keywords":["Thinking in Systems"],"articleSection":["Communication","Management"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/","name":"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know - Shortform Books","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg","datePublished":"2020-10-25T02:36:01+00:00","dateModified":"2020-11-01T03:46:17+00:00","description":"What is a complicated system? All systems are different, even if the basics are the same. Complicated systems have stocks, flows, and more.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg","width":2560,"height":1596},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/complicated-system\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Complicated System: What You Need to Know"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/","name":"Shortform Books","description":"The World&#039;s Best Book Summaries","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"Shortform Books","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/logo-equilateral-with-text-no-bg.png","width":500,"height":74,"caption":"Shortform Books"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/2ababb7c63a94ff5d2190f71dc417d56","name":"Carrie Cabral","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/e9aea3c95254368e6bf388b046b35bacb82e4167f4c62c0813620e3a4ec51126?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Carrie Cabral"},"description":"Carrie has been reading and writing for as long as she can remember, and has always been open to reading anything put in front of her. She wrote her first short story at the age of six, about a lost dog who meets animal friends on his journey home. Surprisingly, it was never picked up by any major publishers, but did spark her passion for books. Carrie worked in book publishing for several years before getting an MFA in Creative Writing. She especially loves literary fiction, historical fiction, and social, cultural, and historical nonfiction that gets into the weeds of daily life.","url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/author\/carrie\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/complicated-systems-thinking-in-systems-scaled.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16841"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16841\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16872,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16841\/revisions\/16872"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}