{"id":14896,"date":"2020-09-24T09:36:52","date_gmt":"2020-09-24T13:36:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=14896"},"modified":"2020-09-25T19:39:06","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T23:39:06","slug":"decision-making-method","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/decision-making-method\/","title":{"rendered":"The Ray Dalio Principles Decision Making Method"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What&#8217;s the best <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/integrative-decision-making\/\">decision making<\/a> method? How do you use it, and why does it work? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Principles decision making method, developed by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/who-is-ray-dalio\/\">Ray Dalio<\/a>, starts with being open minded. Then, you can make careful decisions based on understanding the full situation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep reading to find out about the Principles decision making method. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Use The Principles Decision Making Method?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After you collect information, how do you make the best decisions for yourself? While each decision has unique particularities, Dalio describes general principles to take into any decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are really only two steps to making a decision: 1) learning, and 2) deciding. The Principles decision making methodology can help you make decisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Learn Well<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The foundation of the Principles decision making method is gathering the best information possible. To do so, you need to be radically open-minded and have thoughtful disagreements with people (both of these ideas are discussed in previous chapters).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To make sense of all the information you receive, you need to use each piece of information appropriately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Don\u2019t treat all information equally. Some issues or facts are more important than others. Some people are more believable than others in a given topic area.<\/li><li>Don\u2019t mistake opinions for facts. Some people state their opinions as though they were facts, even though they have little justification for their confidence.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Understand the Situation<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Principles decision making methodology, you should synthesize a good understanding of the situation that you\u2019re making a decision for. This often means understanding the current performance level, as well as how that level has changed over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>For example, let\u2019s say you\u2019re figuring out what to do for your business that isn\u2019t generating enough sales. You need to understand the current level of sales, as well as how the sales rate is changing over time.<\/li><li>Some people look at an improving metric and are satisfied with the way things are, without noticing that it\u2019s not improving <em>quickly enough<\/em>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Focus on a \u201cby and large\u201d general level of understanding. Don\u2019t get obsessed about details that don\u2019t really matter. Don\u2019t focus on edge cases or whether something is \u201ctotally true.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Use the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/80-20-law\/\">80\/20<\/a> rule: what 20% of factors yield 80% of the outcome?<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Levels of Detail<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Understand the situation at multiple levels of detail. There is a top level of the most important points, as well as lower levels of supporting detail. Whenever you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/be-decisive\/\">make a decision<\/a>, you should be clear what level of detail you\u2019re on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the Principles decision making methodology for example, here are levels of detail for someone who\u2019s deciding about a career:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>High level, big picture: I want to do work that provides personal meaning and lets me engage directly with people.<\/li><li>Supporting picture: I want to become a doctor.<\/li><li>Subpoint: I need to get into medical school.<\/li><li>Sub-subpoint: I need to get a good GPA in college.<\/li><li>Sub-sub-subpoint: I shouldn\u2019t go out and party tonight; I should study.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The lower levels of detail support the higher levels and form a complete logical picture. It\u2019s important to see these different levels, rather than seeing all the points as a random pile of facts with no greater logic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If this sounds like a foreign concept, realize that you navigate between different levels all the time without consciously realizing it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To get better at navigating between levels, consciously think about what level you\u2019re at in daily life. For example, if you\u2019re in a conversation, make clear with the person you\u2019re talking to whether you\u2019re talking about main points or sub-points. It\u2019s common for conversations to get derailed when they plunge deep into the weeds in details, without surfacing back up to the main points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Decide Well<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Once you\u2019ve gathered your information, you can make a decision. Here are principles for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-make-good-decisions\/\">making good decisions<\/a> of any kind using the Principles decision making method. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Systematize Your Decision-Making<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>What hurts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/making-better-decisions-2\/\">good decision making<\/a> methodology the most is emotions. <strong>To avoid having your emotions bias your decisions, figure out the criteria underlying your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/methods-of-decision-making-crucial-conversations\/\">decision-making<\/a>, then automate the decision as much as you can.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve learned that principles are the core of how you behave. Principles are fundamental truths that allow you to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/make-better-decisions\/\">make better decisions<\/a> quickly. When you recognize a situation as \u201canother one of those,\u201d you can just refer to your rules as a shortcut to good decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ideally, you can convert your principles into algorithms and have the computer decide alongside you. Here\u2019s how:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Think through your principles for making decisions.<\/li><li>Write them out in both words and algorithms.<\/li><li>Back-test your algorithms with previous data to make sure they would have made good decisions in the past.<\/li><li>Use the algorithms in real time, in parallel with your thinking brain.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: If it\u2019s unclear what algorithms are, think of an \u201cif-then\u201d statement. For example, \u201cIf I receive enough money to pay my bills, I will save 20% of what remains in my retirement account. If I don\u2019t, I will pay my highest interest bills first, then try to cut down my spending.\u201d Having clear rules like this gives you an easy way to make decisions without thinking hard, from scratch, each time.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are a few examples of how Dalio and Bridgewater automate decision-making:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Dalio began by writing down his decision-making criteria for trading, so that when he closed the trade, he could reflect on how well the criteria worked. He would backtest these trading rules over a century of data in every country available.<\/li><li>Bridgewater started using computers in the late 1970s to automate trading criteria and produce trading decisions in response to the environment. Indicators would catch shifting fundamentals and trend-following filters would confirm price movements.<\/li><li>He\u2019s started automating management and human relationships through tools like recording all meetings, the \u201cdot collector,\u201d and the pain button (more on these tools later). Computers can take in data points about people and figure out how to get the most out of people for each project.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember that <strong>good principles are timeless and universal<\/strong>. Have respect for history\u2014what you see as a situation now may not have happened before in your lifetime. This can help your decision making method. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Example: In 2008, Bridgewater had a \u201cdepression gauge\u201d that indicated a bursting point to the debt bubble, since the costs of debt servicing were outpacing projected cash flows, and interest rates were so close to 0 that the Fed couldn\u2019t reverse the downturn. Dalio studied history and read the newspapers from the time, day by day, through the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/great-depression-and-the-new-deal\/\">Great Depression<\/a> and the Weimar Republic to compare what was happening then with what was happening now. This confirmed that his principles on depressions were valid.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Between people, the principles are the true basis for disagreements. Rather than argue about the conclusions both of you have, argue about the principles that each of you used to arrive at your conclusions. If both of you agree on the principles, then you should also agree on the decision.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Never Take the First Available Option<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Sometimes it appears you\u2019re between a rock and a hard place. You only have a choice between two difficult options, or they each trade off something that is unnegotiable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In these situations, instead of taking either difficult option, look harder for a novel solution that you haven\u2019t found yet. <strong>You might be able to create a better solution that lets you have your cake and eat it too.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are examples of how Dalio was able to find an optimal solution where none was obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pure Alpha<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>In investing, it seemed Bridgewater could take one of two paths: high-risk high-return, or low-risk low-return. The former was so volatile it risked a total wipeout; the latter is unrewarding.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, upon thinking harder, Dalio found his \u201choly grail\u201d of investing\u2014compiling a portfolio of uncorrelated assets could improve the return-to-risk ratio and reduce the risk of losing money in any given year. He could essentially have high-returns with lower risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This led to Bridgewater\u2019s flagship fund, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/pure-alpha-ray-dalio\/\">Pure Alpha<\/a>, which has returned an annual average of 18% across its nearly 30 years and is considered the best performing fund of all time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What&#8217;s the best decision making method? How do you use it, and why does it work? The Principles decision making method, developed by Ray Dalio, starts with being open minded. Then, you can make careful decisions based on understanding the full situation. Keep reading to find out about the Principles decision making method.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":14962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34,14,9],"tags":[129],"class_list":["post-14896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-communication","category-management","category-psychology","tag-principles-life-and-work","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Ray Dalio Principles Decision Making Method - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is the Principles decision making method? 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