{"id":143541,"date":"2025-04-12T12:22:20","date_gmt":"2025-04-12T16:22:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=143541"},"modified":"2025-04-14T13:11:23","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T17:11:23","slug":"data-based-decision-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/data-based-decision-making\/","title":{"rendered":"Data-Based Decision-Making Is Better Than Trusting Your Gut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Is your intuition leading you astray? How can you make better life choices using hard data instead of gut feelings?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his book Don’t Trust Your Gut<\/a><\/em>, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz reveals that data-based decision-making<\/a> is far more reliable than human intuition. He explains how our minds are full of cognitive biases<\/a> and how we’re easily misled by exceptional stories that we mistakenly believe represent the norm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep reading to discover how researchers are determining which choices actually lead to positive outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Data-Based Decision-Making<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The title\u2014\u201cdon\u2019t trust your gut\u201d\u2014speaks directly to Stephens-Davidowitz\u2019s basic premise: namely, that hard data is a better guide to making decisions than human intuition.<\/strong> Let\u2019s look at the reasoning behind this statement and where the data we might turn to comes from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: Stephens-Davidowitz explores data-based decision-making in layman\u2019s terms, but if you\u2019re interested in crunching the numbers yourself, Steven Silbiger\u2019s The Ten-Day MBA<\/em><\/a> offers a guide to various data analysis tools that are commonly used in the business world. One tool is the decision matrix<\/a>, wherein you compare different options by scoring them based on factors that are important to you and determine the best choice from there. Other tools you can use are probability analyses<\/a> and regression analyses<\/a>. Applying these techniques to non-business scenarios may be a creative challenge<\/a>, but Stephens-Davidowitz\u2019s work shows that it can be done.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stephens-Davidowitz\u2019s case against intuition is twofold. First he points out that the human mind is riddled with cognitive biases and misleading mental shortcuts<\/a>.<\/strong> We can\u2019t help it\u2014these errors spring from the mental shorthand our brains use to quickly process information, making \u201ccommon sense\u201d on the individual level and \u201cconventional wisdom\u201d when applied to society at large. And we\u2019re not always wrong\u2014but Stephens-Davidowitz proposes that common sense<\/a> is wrong often enough<\/em> that we shouldn\u2019t fully trust it if we have a better option.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: In Super Thinking<\/em><\/a>, Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann go into more detail about the pitfalls of common sense and intuition. They propose that both conventional wisdom and your gut instincts are based on rigid assumptions.<\/a> Common sense draws upon shared societal beliefs that often go unquestioned, whether or not they\u2019re true, whereas intuition can be inappropriate if you assume you can rely on it in situations that call for deliberative thought.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to our untrustworthy instincts, we also frequently fall victim to misleading narratives. The most common trend that Stephens-Davidowitz points to is that society fixates on extraordinary stories to the point that they\u2019re not seen as outliers.<\/strong> For example, consider the age-old clich\u00e9 of the Hollywood star who\u2019s \u201cdiscovered\u201d by chance while waiting tables in an LA restaurant. Such stories draw attention<\/a> because they\u2019re unusual. But, because we hear them more often than the more common experience of persistence and rejection, we begin to think of the \u201cone-in-a-million\u201d rise to Hollywood fame as the rule, not the exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: In addition to being misleading, as Stephens-Davidowitz states, exceptional success stories<\/a> can also be toxic. In The Antidote<\/em><\/a>, Oliver Burkeman argues that feeling inspired by these stories undermines your efforts to copy them<\/a>. For instance, if you want to be a movie star and picture yourself winning the same awards as your hero, you feel a premature sense of success that tricks your brain into believing you\u2019ve already done the work to achieve it. This, in turn, weakens your motivation while setting unrealistic expectations<\/a> for success.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If commonplace narratives can\u2019t be trusted, where can we turn for accurate information? For individuals, there\u2019s no quick and easy answer. But Stephens-Davidowitz says that, for data scientists studying the human condition, smartphones are a goldmine.<\/strong> Using anonymized smartphone usage statistics, combined with census and tax return data, modern researchers can use analytics to measure and correlate aspects of human behavior to an unprecedented degree. Data scientists can use trends in internet searches, app usage, online commerce, and travel patterns to determine which choices people make have the greatest positive and negative outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: In the studies Stephens-Davidowitz cites, the data collected was anonymized or given freely in a context he presents as being largely benign. However, some contend that many technology companies\u2019 data collection practices aren\u2019t quite as harmless: In The Age of Surveillance Capitalism<\/em><\/a>, Shoshana Zuboff argues that digital data collection isn\u2019t used to better serve customers\u2019 needs<\/a>, but to sell predictions about user behavior<\/a>. This approach turns consumers into products<\/a>, with people\u2019s thoughts, actions, and emotions driving a cycle of consumerism.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is your intuition leading you astray? How can you make better life choices using hard data instead of gut feelings? In his book Don’t Trust Your Gut, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz reveals that data-based decision-making is far more reliable than human intuition. He explains how our minds are full of cognitive biases and how we’re easily misled by exceptional stories that we mistakenly believe represent the norm. Keep reading to discover how researchers are determining which choices actually lead to positive outcomes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":143547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,25],"tags":[1771],"class_list":["post-143541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-psychology","category-statistics","tag-dont-trust-your-gut","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nData-Based Decision-Making Is Better Than Trusting Your Gut - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Researchers are determining which choices lead to positive outcomes. 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