{"id":139607,"date":"2025-01-12T16:03:23","date_gmt":"2025-01-12T20:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=139607"},"modified":"2025-01-14T16:08:22","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T20:08:22","slug":"when-will-we-see-the-northern-lights-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/when-will-we-see-the-northern-lights-again\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will We See the Northern Lights Again? Experts Weigh In"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When will we see the northern lights again? Will we get a repeat of the spectacular aurora display we had last year?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solar activity plays a crucial role in creating these magnificent light shows. During periods of heightened solar activity, particularly near solar maximum, the chances of seeing the aurora at lower latitudes increase significantly. Several factors determine when and where these celestial displays might appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keep reading to discover how to boost your chances of witnessing this breathtaking phenomenon and learn what scientists predict about future aurora displays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Predicting the Northern Lights<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On May 10 and 11, 2024, millions of people saw the northern lights (aurora borealis)<\/a> in locations well south of where it\u2019s typically visible. (Observers in the southern hemisphere also saw the aurora australis much farther north than usual<\/a>.) The display was caused by a series of three coronal mass ejections (CMEs)<\/a> that sent solar particles into Earth\u2019s atmosphere. So, when will we see the northern lights again? Some scientists consider last year’s geomagnetic storm, which set off the spectacular northern and southern lights, a \u201conce-in-a-generation\u201d event<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists say the storm brought the strongest magnetic activity in decades and the most vibrant aurora display in centuries<\/a>, according to NASA. So that you\u2019re prepared whenever the next solar \u201csuperstorm\u201d occurs, we\u2019ll take a look at when scientists think we might see it again, and how you can maximize your chances of getting a good look at it the next time it comes around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An aurora display like we observed in May 2024 is very rare, and whether it happens again depends on the sun\u2019s activity. Scientists have linked the CMEs that caused the aurora display to an area of the sun\u2019s surface called Active Region 3664<\/a> (AR3664). AR3664 contains dark sunspots<\/a> that disrupt the sun\u2019s magnetic field and create the conditions that can lead to a solar flare or a CME. When the sun reaches solar maximum, sunspots that give rise to solar flares and CMEs become more and more common as solar maximum approaches. Because the heightened activity will also continue after solar maximum, scientists think we\u2019ll have a period of more than a year with better-than-typical odds of seeing an aurora at lower latitudes<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s useful for scientists to anticipate the sun\u2019s magnetic activity. When CMEs disrupt Earth\u2019s magnetic field, they can interfere with radio transmissions, cause electrical surges that overload power grids, and damage satellites. This results in disruptions to communication, navigation, and electricity systems. Scientists use sophisticated instruments and models<\/a> to try to forecast \u201cspace weather,\u201d including spacecraft that measure solar wind and monitor the sun\u2019s magnetic field, and cameras and magnetometers operated from Earth. Yet they can\u2019t really predict when or where auroras might be visible. They have to wait for a CME erupt to predict its path and project whether it will reach Earth and cause a geomagnetic storm<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though scientists can\u2019t really predict when another big geomagnetic storm might strike, they can make some educated guesses about how often such events should occur. Records indicate that a storm of the scale of the one that caused the May 2024 auroras has about a 5% chance<\/a> of happening in any given year. But they think that that probability could be higher over the next couple of years as the sun reaches solar maximum and its activity begins to gradually decline. It\u2019s also possible that we could see an even bigger storm than we observed last May<\/strong>. Some scientists even think we\u2019re overdue for a storm more like 1859\u2019s \u201cCarrington Event,\u201d a solar storm that knocked out telegraph systems and created auroras visible from the tropics<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

People Love to Witness Celestial Wonders: The 2024 Eclipse<\/strong>

A total solar eclipse occurred on April 8, 2024<\/a>, visible across North and Central America. During this event, the moon blocked the sun for several minutes during daylight hours. Just like the aurora borealis, conditions have to be just right. A total solar eclipse<\/a> requires precise alignment of the sun, moon, and Earth. Three key conditions must be met: It must occur during a New Moon. The moon must be at the right distance from Earth to appear the same size as the sun.

Viewers must be within the “path of totality”\u2014a 115-mile wide band where the sun is completely blocked. While partial eclipses occur every 18 months, total eclipses are rare at any specific location, visible from only 1% of Earth’s surface. The next total solar eclipse visible from the contiguous US after 2024 won’t occur until 2045.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

How to Increase Your Odds of Seeing the Aurora<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If you want to figure out when you might see the aurora outside of its usual range of visibility, you can watch the Kp Index<\/strong>, which measures the geomagnetic activity<\/a> that gives rise to the aurora. The Kp Index ranges from 0 to 9. At a level 6 or 7, it\u2019s possible to see the aurora from the northern edge of the United States. At a level 8 or 9, it\u2019s visible from many northern states. (Scientists have seen Level 9 activity on only 32 occasions in the last 92 years, and three of those occurred between May 10 and 11, 2024.) The NOAA also measures the strength of the geomagnetic storms<\/a> caused when energy and particles from the sun disturb Earth\u2019s magnetic field. The NOAA ranks these storms on a scale from Level 1 to Level 5, and the agency put out a warning for a Level 4 storm\u2014which reached a Level 5 when it arrived\u2014ahead of the display last May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to looking out for the aurora when the Kp Index indicates that geomagnetic activity is high, experts recommend a few other strategies for maximizing<\/a> your chances of seeing the aurora. You can travel closer to the north magnetic pole, which is located in the islands of northeastern Canada. Or, move to a higher altitude where you have an unobstructed view northward. Under the right conditions, you can see the aurora from 600 miles away. It\u2019s also important to look for the darkest place possible, away from urban light pollution (and avoiding very high latitudes when the sun doesn\u2019t set in summer<\/a>). It\u2019s also useful to know that the aurora is usually most vivid within an hour or two of midnight, and near the spring and fall equinoxes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When will we see the northern lights again? Will we get a repeat of the spectacular aurora display we had last year? Solar activity plays a crucial role in creating these magnificent light shows. During periods of heightened solar activity, particularly near solar maximum, the chances of seeing the aurora at lower latitudes increase significantly. Several factors determine when and where these celestial displays might appear. Keep reading to discover how to boost your chances of witnessing this breathtaking phenomenon and learn what scientists predict about future aurora displays.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":139644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[160],"tags":[727],"class_list":["post-139607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-articles","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nWhen Will We See the Northern Lights Again? Experts Weigh In - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Scientists discuss the factors that determine when we will see the northern lights again. 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