{"id":136729,"date":"2024-12-13T13:01:59","date_gmt":"2024-12-13T17:01:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=136729"},"modified":"2024-12-19T13:33:16","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T17:33:16","slug":"risk-tolerance-vs-risk-aversion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/risk-tolerance-vs-risk-aversion\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk Tolerance vs. Risk Aversion: How Emotions Run the Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>How do investors cycle between risk tolerance and risk aversion? When is the market at its riskiest?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Howard Marks contends that as a result of the fluctuations between greed and fear, most investors alternate between being overly risk-tolerant and overly risk-averse. Risk tolerance leads to inflated securities prices, eventually leading investors to become risk averse because of these excessive prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Discover how Marks explains risk tolerance vs. risk aversion, and how the former can cause the latter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-cycle-between-risk-tolerance-and-risk-aversio-n\"><strong>The Cycle Between Risk Tolerance and Risk Aversio<\/strong>n<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>First, to explain risk tolerance vs. risk aversion, Marks writes that when investors become greedy\u2014which occurs whenever the economy prospers, profits rise, and credit is accessible\u2014they\u2019re more willing to purchase stocks and other securities at a premium. For example, even if Apple\u2019s share price is exceedingly high, greedy investors might reason that it\u2019ll keep increasing, meaning they think the currently inflated share price is moot because they\u2019ll earn a significant profit regardless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: In <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/the-warren-buffett-way\/1-page-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>The Warren Buffett Way<\/em><\/a>, Robert G. Hagstrom explains that you can resist the temptation to buy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/overpriced-stocks\/\">overpriced stocks<\/a> by calculating stocks\u2019 <em>intrinsic value<\/em> and only buying stocks that are currently below this threshold. Intrinsic value, he clarifies, is roughly a <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/the-warren-buffett-way\/1-page-summary#how-buffett-assesses-a-companys-market-value\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">company\u2019s projected lifetime net income divided by its number of shares<\/a>\u2014this allows you to calculate the intrinsic value of each <em>share<\/em>. By calculating intrinsic value, you can determine whether greed has caused a stock to become overpriced by seeing whether its current share price exceeds its intrinsic value per share.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upshot is that when investors <em>believe <\/em>the securities market poses the least risk (that is, when they bid up prices), it actually carries the most risk because securities are overpriced. According to Marks, savvy investors will realize that the market is overpriced, leading them to begin selling securities and dropping their prices. As other fearful investors see these initial price drops, they\u2019ll likewise sell securities, causing a cascading series of price drops.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Marks contends that over time, these decreases in price will cause investors to become risk <em>averse<\/em>\u2014they\u2019ll become convinced that prices can only drop further, making them reluctant to purchase securities that are actually a good bargain. Thus, when the securities market is <em>least <\/em>risky because it\u2019s underpriced, investors tend to be <em>most <\/em>risk averse.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Marks\u2019s contention that the market is riskiest when investors believe it\u2019s the least risky, and vice versa, jibes well with the approach known as <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/contrarian-investing\/\">contrarian investing<\/a><\/em>. Contrarian investors seek out investing positions that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/contrarian.asp#:~:text=Contrarian%20investing%20is%20an%20investment,is%20a%20famous%20contrarian%20investor.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">run counter to current investing trends<\/a>, reasoning that these trends often reveal opportunities. For example, a contrarian might reason that bearish markets are likely to feature underpriced securities, making a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/bull-or-bear-market\/\">bear market<\/a> ideal for purchasing more securities.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How do investors cycle between risk tolerance and risk aversion? When is the market at its riskiest? Howard Marks contends that as a result of the fluctuations between greed and fear, most investors alternate between being overly risk-tolerant and overly risk-averse. Risk tolerance leads to inflated securities prices, eventually leading investors to become risk averse because of these excessive prices. Discover how Marks explains risk tolerance vs. risk aversion, and how the former can cause the latter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":137497,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,9],"tags":[1680],"class_list":["post-136729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-psychology","tag-mastering-the-market-cycle","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Risk Tolerance vs. Risk Aversion: How Emotions Run the Market - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investors cycle between risk tolerance and risk aversion as markets shift from greed to fear. Check out how this pattern affects market risk.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/risk-tolerance-vs-risk-aversion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Risk Tolerance vs. Risk Aversion: How Emotions Run the Market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Investors cycle between risk tolerance and risk aversion as markets shift from greed to fear. 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