{"id":120466,"date":"2024-01-07T16:03:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-07T20:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=120466"},"modified":"2024-01-08T16:05:27","modified_gmt":"2024-01-08T20:05:27","slug":"2024-housing-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/2024-housing-market\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 Housing Market Predictions: Will It Improve?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Will the 2024 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/current-housing-market\/\">housing market<\/a> be as bad as the 2023 market? How did the 2007-2008 financial crisis trigger today&#8217;s affordable housing struggles? Why is homeownership a pipedream for many Americans?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stricter lending standards and sky-high home prices have rendered homeownership increasingly unattainable for many Americans. Despite slight improvements expected in 2024, long-term housing affordability remains uncertain due to supply shortages, high prices, and increasing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/global-economic-inequality\/\">economic inequality<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep reading for an idea of what&#8217;s in store for the year ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-housing-affordability-crisis\">The Housing Affordability Crisis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Homeownership, a longstanding emblem of stability and prosperity in the US, is becoming a distant reality for many Americans now shut out by the escalating <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/affordable-housing-crisis\/\">affordable housing crisis<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are economists&#8217; predictions for the 2024 housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-background\"><strong>Background&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The roots of today&#8217;s affordable housing slump trace back to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreservehistory.org\/essays\/great-recession-and-its-aftermath\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2007-2008 financial meltdown<\/a>, which led the housing market to crash. The upheaval resulted in stricter lending rules that made it harder for people to qualify for mortgages and triggered a sharp drop in new home construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Homeownership has historically been considered a cornerstone of the American Dream, giving families a chance to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/building-wealth\/\">build wealth<\/a> and stability over time. But the rate of homeownership has been dropping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-current-affordability-crisis\"><strong>The Current Affordability Crisis&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent years, <strong>sky-high home prices, rising mortgage rates, and a shortage of homes for sale have put home buying out of reach<\/strong> for many Americans.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Home prices have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/12\/15\/us\/politics\/housing-prices-biden.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">surged by 46%<\/a> since early 2020, putting the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/real-estate\/housing-market-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">median home sale price at $387,600<\/a>.<\/li><li>The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to a <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Business\/mortgage-rates-surge-21-year-high\/story?id=102348330\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">21-year high of 7.09%<\/a>.<\/li><li>Rents have risen sharply in recent years, peaking at a nationwide average median of <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/renters-finally-catching-break-rents-110000325.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$2,054 in August 2022<\/a>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts say that, as a result, the American dream of homeownership is fading for a growing number of Americans. <a href=\"https:\/\/usafacts.org\/data-projects\/housing-costs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Half of all renters are buckling under financial pressure<\/strong><\/a><strong>, spending more than 30% of their income on housing<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The crisis highlights the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/houses-will-get-a-bit-more-affordable-in-2024-forecasters-say-8410354\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">growing divide<\/a> between individuals fortunate enough to jump on the property ladder early and those who may have family backing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-outlook-for-2024\"><strong>Outlook for 2024<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The outlook for the affordable <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/us-housing-shortage\/\">housing crisis<\/a> in 2024 hinges largely on what happens with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/real-estate\/housing-market-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mortgage rates, home prices, and inventory levels<\/a>. Most experts predict that mortgage rates will continue to decline from their 2022 peaks, with estimates for an average 30-year fixed rate running between <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/11\/30\/home-prices-housing-affordability-mortgage-rates-forecast-2024-realtor\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">6.5%<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/money\/blueprint\/mortgages\/mortgage-forecast\/#:~:text=Freddie%20Mac%2C%20Fannie%20Mae%20and%20Mortgage%20Bankers%20Association&amp;text=Fannie%20Mae%20predicts%20rates%20peaking,over%20the%20course%20of%202024.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">7.1%<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists say this could <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/houses-will-get-a-bit-more-affordable-in-2024-forecasters-say-8410354\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">improve housing affordability by 5%<\/a>, assuming incomes continue to rise at recent rates and home prices increase moderately, as expected. However, even this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/advisor\/mortgages\/real-estate\/housing-market-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">would only improve the situation marginally<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, economists largely agree that<strong> low housing inventory will continue to plague the market this year:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>With mortgage rates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/real-estate\/housing-market-2024\/#will-sales-decline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">expected to remain above 6%<\/a>, homeowners enjoying current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/housing\/home-buyers-sellers-market-interest-rate-4f88b030\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sub-4% rates<\/a> may be reluctant to sell their homes.<\/li><li>A shortage of roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/real-estate\/housing-market-2024\/#will-inventory-increase\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1 million homes<\/a> remains.<\/li><li>Single-family housing construction will do little to alleviate the pressure\u2014forecasted to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/personal-finance\/housing-market-forecast-turnaround-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">inch up by just 0.4%<\/a>.<\/li><li>Home prices are expected to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/real-estate\/housing-market-2024\/#will-sales-decline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rise by 3-4%<\/a>, outpacing wage growth.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-looking-ahead\"><strong>Looking Ahead&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts say that significant, long-term improvements in the housing crisis depend largely on cooling interest rates and meaningful government policy changes. If marginal interest rate declines from 2023 continue into 2024, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/housing\/home-buyers-sellers-market-interest-rate-4f88b030\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">as the Federal Reserve anticipates<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/real-estate\/housing-market-2024\/#will-sales-decline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">market activity may increase<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, to date, government policy efforts have shown limited effectiveness in moving the needle on housing affordability and supply. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will the 2024 housing market be as bad as the 2023 market? How did the 2007-2008 financial crisis trigger today&#8217;s affordable housing struggles? Why is homeownership a pipedream for many Americans? Stricter lending standards and sky-high home prices have rendered homeownership increasingly unattainable for many Americans. Despite slight improvements expected in 2024, long-term housing affordability remains uncertain due to supply shortages, high prices, and increasing economic inequality. Keep reading for an idea of what&#8217;s in store for the year ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":120467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,24],"tags":[727],"class_list":["post-120466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-society","tag-articles","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>2024 Housing Market Predictions: Will It Improve? - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After a difficult year for homebuyers, will the 2024 housing market turn things around? Here are the views of economists on the year to come.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/2024-housing-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024 Housing Market Predictions: Will It Improve?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After a difficult year for homebuyers, will the 2024 housing market turn things around? 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