{"id":115801,"date":"2023-10-20T15:59:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T19:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=115801"},"modified":"2023-10-24T11:40:07","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T15:40:07","slug":"is-there-a-recession-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Is There Still a Recession Coming, or Did We Avoid It?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Is there still a recession coming? Did the US manage to avoid the impending doom?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts are still divided on whether the United States will face a recession, with signs pointing in both directions. Some say that interest rate hikes, oil price increases, and dwindling savings signal a possible recession. Others counter that there&#8217;s optimism for continued growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continue reading to learn more about the two perspectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-2-views-on-an-american-recession\">The 2 Views on an American Recession<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A recession is characterized by a minimum of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/a-recession-may-still-be-in-the-forecast-how-you-can-prepare.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">two consecutive quarters of economic decline<\/a>, as indicated by a decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recessions can make Americans&#8217; daily lives more challenging as individuals\u2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/a-recession-may-still-be-in-the-forecast-how-you-can-prepare.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">incomes drop <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/qai\/2023\/02\/02\/how-does-a-recession-affect-the-average-person\/?sh=507de3e03a6b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">costs rise<\/a>, forcing families to cut back on essentials such as food, health care, and housing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic forecasters predicted the onset of a recession at various points throughout <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/article\/steps-to-take-as-recession-concerns-grow-shortform-explainers-shortform?sf_source=businessnewsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2022<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/article\/how-to-weather-a-recession-if-youre-not-wealthy-shortform-explainers-shortform?sf_source=businessnewsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2023<\/a>. Economists feared that factors including Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-06\/summers-says-energizer-bunny-economy-signals-fed-hikes-failing?sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">interest rate hikes<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/article\/steps-to-take-as-recession-concerns-grow-shortform-explainers-shortform?sf_source=businessnewsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lingering economic constraints<\/a> from the Covid-19 pandemic would trigger an economic downturn. So far, dire recession projections have yet to materialize. However, some say that cracks have started to emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-view-1-we-re-not-out-of-the-woods\"><strong>View 1: We\u2019re Not Out of the Woods<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Many economists, including at Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Fannie Mae, predict an impending recession <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/11\/opinion\/economy-recession-soft-landing.html?showTranscript=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">later this year<\/a> or in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/a-recession-may-still-be-in-the-forecast-how-you-can-prepare.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">first quarter of 2024<\/a>. Key signs of a downturn that they cite include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/11\/opinion\/economy-recession-soft-landing.html?showTranscript=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Steep and rapid interest rate hikes<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY5NjI4MjUyMSwiZXhwIjoxNjk2ODg3MzIxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTMVZCTzNEV1JHRzAwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIyREE2MkQwRUFFNkM0MkU3QkJBNTVBNTE1QzdDQkFCRiJ9.hC-AiD2AWkp11KcYq8-O7ugdOF91ExX5fxDQYqvOZlU&amp;sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Recent oil price jumps<\/strong><\/a>. <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY5NjI4MjUyMSwiZXhwIjoxNjk2ODg3MzIxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTMVZCTzNEV1JHRzAwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIyREE2MkQwRUFFNkM0MkU3QkJBNTVBNTE1QzdDQkFCRiJ9.hC-AiD2AWkp11KcYq8-O7ugdOF91ExX5fxDQYqvOZlU&amp;sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Growing global headwinds<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY5NjI4MjUyMSwiZXhwIjoxNjk2ODg3MzIxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTMVZCTzNEV1JHRzAwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIyREE2MkQwRUFFNkM0MkU3QkJBNTVBNTE1QzdDQkFCRiJ9.hC-AiD2AWkp11KcYq8-O7ugdOF91ExX5fxDQYqvOZlU&amp;sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Dwindling savings and stimulus funds<\/strong><\/a>. <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY5NjI4MjUyMSwiZXhwIjoxNjk2ODg3MzIxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTMVZCTzNEV1JHRzAwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIyREE2MkQwRUFFNkM0MkU3QkJBNTVBNTE1QzdDQkFCRiJ9.hC-AiD2AWkp11KcYq8-O7ugdOF91ExX5fxDQYqvOZlU&amp;sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Increased credit tightening<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/a-recession-may-still-be-in-the-forecast-how-you-can-prepare.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Recent negative headlines<\/strong><\/a><strong> that erode consumer confidence, <\/strong>including about the autoworkers\u2019 strike, the looming possibility of a federal <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/another-government-shutdown\/\">government shutdown<\/a> (which was temporarily averted), uncertainty around the Federal Reserve, and broader geopolitical concerns.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-view-2-a-recession-isn-t-likely\"><strong>View 2: A Recession Isn&#8217;t Likely<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, and Larry Fink of BlackRock, among other analysts, argue that a recession in the near future is improbable. They point to the unconventional nature of the current pandemic-induced economic cycle, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/11\/opinion\/economy-recession-soft-landing.html?showTranscript=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">defies historical patterns<\/a>. They also note that<strong> <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2023\/10\/12\/what-recession-these-three-charts-show-it-s-increasingly-unlikely\/6af8e726-68ea-11ee-9753-2b3742e96987_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>three significant economic vulnerability critical indicators have improved<\/strong><\/a>: downward revisions in payroll data, a deceleration in the increase of unemployment insurance claims, and a narrowing of the gap between job seekers and job openings. Consequently, these analysts anticipate ongoing economic growth and expansion, supported by the following factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/11\/opinion\/economy-recession-soft-landing.html?showTranscript=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Effective government policies<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/personal-finance\/mild-recession-forecast-fannie-mae\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Robust consumer spending<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2023\/10\/12\/what-recession-these-three-charts-show-it-s-increasingly-unlikely\/6af8e726-68ea-11ee-9753-2b3742e96987_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>A healthy job market<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY5NjI4MjUyMSwiZXhwIjoxNjk2ODg3MzIxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTMVZCTzNEV1JHRzAwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIyREE2MkQwRUFFNkM0MkU3QkJBNTVBNTE1QzdDQkFCRiJ9.hC-AiD2AWkp11KcYq8-O7ugdOF91ExX5fxDQYqvOZlU&amp;sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Enhanced productivity<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-10-01\/6-reasons-why-a-us-recession-is-likely-and-coming-soon?sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>A reduction in job vacancies<\/strong><\/a><strong> could naturally moderate wage increases in a competitive job market<\/strong>, offering a more favorable alternative to using unemployment (typically a factor that causes recessions) to achieve the same cooling effect.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-looking-ahead\"><strong>Looking Ahead<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic outlooks continue to diverge when it comes to predictions of growth or a downturn ahead. Yet with high inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and other variables in play, uncertainty dominates. As a result, some experts recommend taking proactive steps to recession-proof yourself where possible:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/a-recession-may-still-be-in-the-forecast-how-you-can-prepare.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Reduce your debts<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> Pay down credit cards and other high-interest obligations where possible.<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lfcu.org\/news\/managing-money-credit\/budgeting-for-a-recession-the-dos-and-donts-for-weathering-a-financial-storm\/#:~:text=Increasing%20your%20liabilities,cosign%20for%20someone%20else's%20debt.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Budget and cut unnecessary costs<\/strong><\/a><strong> <\/strong>to free up your cash flow.<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/a-recession-may-still-be-in-the-forecast-how-you-can-prepare.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Boost your emergency savings<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> Aim to set aside three-to-six months of living expenses in easily accessible accounts.<\/li><li><strong>Take <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/article\/how-to-weather-a-recession-if-youre-not-wealthy-shortform-explainers-shortform?sf_source=businessnewsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>small, concrete steps<\/strong><\/a><strong> to weather a storm.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to Pay Off Debt<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In <em><a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/the-total-money-makeover\/preview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Total Money Makeover<\/a><\/em> by Dave Ramsey, he explains how to pay off your debts using the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/the-debt-snowball\/\">snowball method<\/a>. You need to get rid of debt to get control of your income and put it to work for you. There are two steps:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1) <strong>List your debts in order, from the one with the smallest balance to the largest<\/strong>. Exclude only your mortgage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2) Each month, <strong>apply every extra dollar you have after basic expenses toward paying the smallest debt until it\u2019s paid off. <\/strong>Make the minimum payments to stay current on the other debts on the list.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After the smallest debt is paid, apply the payment you had been making on it, plus any additional money you have, toward paying off the next smallest debt. When the second debt is paid off, apply the payment amounts from the first two debts, plus any other money you can find, to the third debt on your list, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Each time you pay off a debt, you increase the amount you can pay on the next one\u2014your payments continue to snowball until your debts are paid off.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is there still a recession coming? Did the US manage to avoid the impending doom? Experts are still divided on whether the United States will face a recession, with signs pointing in both directions. Some say that interest rate hikes, oil price increases, and dwindling savings signal a possible recession. Others counter that there&#8217;s optimism for continued growth. Continue reading to learn more about the two perspectives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":115802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81],"tags":[727],"class_list":["post-115801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-articles","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is There Still a Recession Coming, or Did We Avoid It? - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is there still a recession coming like economists kept predicting, or did we avoid it? Here, we&#039;ll take a look at the two different views.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is There Still a Recession Coming, or Did We Avoid It?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is there still a recession coming like economists kept predicting, or did we avoid it? Here, we&#039;ll take a look at the two different views.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-10-20T19:59:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-24T15:40:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/person-sleeping-on-the-sidewalk.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1037\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"673\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hannah Aster\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hannah Aster\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Hannah Aster\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/f39f52830e4f7039a16e45d12354542f\"},\"headline\":\"Is There Still a Recession Coming, or Did We Avoid It?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-20T19:59:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-10-24T15:40:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/\"},\"wordCount\":726,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/person-sleeping-on-the-sidewalk.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Articles\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economics\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/\",\"name\":\"Is There Still a Recession Coming, or Did We Avoid It? - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-there-a-recession-coming\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/person-sleeping-on-the-sidewalk.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-10-20T19:59:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-10-24T15:40:07+00:00\",\"description\":\"Is there still a recession coming like economists kept predicting, or did we avoid it? 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