{"id":111997,"date":"2023-08-29T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-29T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=111997"},"modified":"2023-08-31T13:02:11","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T17:02:11","slug":"deflation-in-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/deflation-in-china\/","title":{"rendered":"China Faces Deflation\u2014Can It Weather the Storm?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What\u2019s behind China\u2019s growing economic woes? What impacts will China&#8217;s deflation have on other nations? What\u2019s the outlook for China\u2019s economy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s economy, once a global growth powerhouse, now faces significant challenges. Globally, China\u2019s economic troubles could disrupt trade, influence commodity prices, and have ripple effects on the international financial system, presenting both challenges and opportunities for other nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep reading for the two different views on China&#8217;s economic situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-s-economy-is-struggling\">China&#8217;s Economy Is Struggling<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last month, China\u2019s consumer and producer prices <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/12\/china-deflation-ticking-time-bomb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">turned negative<\/a> for the first time since November 2020, signaling the onset of China&#8217;s deflation. This slowdown of China\u2019s already faltering economy\u2014the second biggest globally at around 20% of total world output\u2014has <a href=\"https:\/\/theweek.com\/economy\/1025866\/china-slowdown-us-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">major implications at home and abroad<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-brief-history-of-china-s-economy\">A Brief History of China&#8217;s Economy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For decades, China\u2019s economic performance was remarkable. Between 1992 and 2022, the nation\u2019s yearly economic production <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/article\/chinas-homegrown-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">soared from under $500 billion to $18 trillion<\/a>. The prolonged period of double-digit expansion drove China\u2019s GDP per person from less than $400 annually to $13,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the nation\u2019s economic growth has decelerated in recent years. And recently, key inflation metrics <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/12\/china-deflation-ticking-time-bomb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">dipped below zero<\/a>, indicating the start of deflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The shift came as a shock to many. Economists had broadly predicted China\u2019s economy to rebound strongly in 2022 following the easing of zero-COVID restrictions. But after a promising start, the country\u2019s post-COVID comeback <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/08\/16\/1193711035\/china-economy-tao-wang-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ground to a halt<\/a>. The economy slumped in the second quarter, hampered by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/12\/china-deflation-ticking-time-bomb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>weak consumer spending<\/strong><\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/china-slips-into-deflation-in-warning-sign-for-world-economy-bbefb179\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">declining exports,<\/a> record-high youth unemployment, and a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/08\/16\/1193711035\/china-economy-tao-wang-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">deepening property market downturn<\/a>. In July, reports showed China&#8217;s yearly GDP growth rate slowing and leveling off at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/china-economy-collapse-what-we-know-1821537\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">around 4%<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-view-1-china-s-economy-is-in-peril\"><strong>View 1: China\u2019s Economy Is in Peril&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts say there are many signs that China\u2019s economic future is in peril, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/12\/china-deflation-ticking-time-bomb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Weak consumer spending<\/strong><\/a>. Chinese consumers have been cautious. Household savings are on the rise and people appear to be putting money into easily accessible assets.<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2023-08-18\/china-s-growing-economic-struggles-trouble-global-leaders?sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Manufacturing contraction<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong> China\u2019s global manufacturing activity has declined.<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/12\/china-deflation-ticking-time-bomb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>A real estate market in crisis<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>China&#8217;s property market, a significant contributor to its economy at 30% of GDP, has faced challenges due to years of government actions aimed at reducing excessive borrowing by property developers. <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/08\/21\/economy\/china-economy-troubles-intl-hnk\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Heavy debt<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>China&#8217;s debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio reached a <a href=\"https:\/\/asia.nikkei.com\/Business\/Markets\/China-debt-crunch\/China-s-debt-ratio-hits-record-high-at-3-times-GDP\">record high <\/a>of nearly three times its GDP in 2022. <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/china-economy-collapse-what-we-know-1821537\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Record high youth unemployment<\/strong><\/a>. The jobless rate for young people in China soared to more than 20% this year, reducing spending and worsening economic challenges.<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/chinas-worsening-economy-is-hurting-corporate-america-a3657373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Failed stimulus measures<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>To date, Beijing&#8217;s attempts to invigorate the economy, such as cutting interest rates, have been ineffective.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Experts say that deflationary pressure will <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/china-slips-into-deflation-in-warning-sign-for-world-economy-bbefb179\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>aggravate and prolong these problems<\/strong><\/a>\u2014causing consumers to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wionews.com\/business-economy\/decoded-5-reasons-why-chinas-economy-is-struggling-616376\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">postpone spending<\/a> and companies to cut back on production, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/china-slips-into-deflation-in-warning-sign-for-world-economy-bbefb179\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">making it harder for borrowers to repay loans<\/a> and reinforcing the belief that deflation will persist. This will diminish the effectiveness of traditional economic stimulus measures, intensify the country\u2019s economic decline, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2023-08-18\/china-s-growing-economic-struggles-trouble-global-leaders?sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>have significant global consequences<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-view-2-china-can-weather-its-economic-woes\"><strong>View 2: China Can Weather Its Economic Woes&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Other experts counter that China <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/china-economy-debt-slowdown-recession-622a3be4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">has weathered previous doom-and-gloom predictions<\/a>. They say that several factors could lead the country to perform more positively than some forecasts anticipate, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>China\u2019s thriving electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Ongoing tensions with the US, <\/strong>which could push the country to speed up development of artificial intelligence and semiconductors in pursuit of expansion.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong>Capacity the country retains to tap options that stimulate economic growth<\/strong>\u2014for example, by increasing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-should-the-government-spend-money-on\/\">government spending<\/a>.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Further, China\u2019s economic troubles may have silver linings for other countries, including potentially:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-08-23\/prigozhin-listed-as-passenger-aboard-crashed-jet-interfax-says?sref=mIZ1p2Gz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Making exported products less expensive<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong>Reducing inflationary pressures in the US\u2014<\/strong>enabling the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates less aggressively as it battles inflation.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What\u2019s behind China\u2019s growing economic woes? What impacts will China&#8217;s deflation have on other nations? What\u2019s the outlook for China\u2019s economy? China\u2019s economy, once a global growth powerhouse, now faces significant challenges. Globally, China\u2019s economic troubles could disrupt trade, influence commodity prices, and have ripple effects on the international financial system, presenting both challenges and opportunities for other nations. Keep reading for the two different views on China&#8217;s economic situation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":111998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81],"tags":[727],"class_list":["post-111997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-articles","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>China Faces Deflation\u2014Can It Weather the Storm? - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A once global powerhouse, China&#039;s economy now faces deflation. 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