{"id":106212,"date":"2023-06-27T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=106212"},"modified":"2023-06-27T08:36:53","modified_gmt":"2023-06-27T12:36:53","slug":"bull-or-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/bull-or-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Is 2023 a Bull or Bear Market? It Depends on Who You Ask"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Is the US in a bull or bear market right now? Why can&#8217;t the experts agree?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Depending on which financial analyst or media outlet you listen to, right now the US stock market is either a bull, a bear, or a bull within a bear. To avoid risky bets on stocks, ignore current, frenzied bull and bear forecasts and look to experts who take a retrospective approach to assessing the market\u2019s health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continue reading for a breakdown of each side&#8217;s opinion on the matter, and how to create your investment strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-type-of-market-are-we-in\">What Type of Market Are We In?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On June 8, the S&amp;P 500 closed up more than 20% from its October lows, launching a new bull market that, according to some, <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/the-sp-500-has-entered-a-bull-market-heres-what-history-says-will-happen-next-114424541.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB_GQQ6gb2IkRSNzLxCuWi--EMjJzHsHbv57u_VSVvR_s8QA1zCGcprB2ibJFy6pILslepxS5E7M2ZaQLnVPkUZ3fd5ELeV7VZQEGN4PJmTgxDVQyn8T0Jp2fc-F-PaPbqR_9FCpFjGQuaUl8ui3nbqrImfqmDrxR2Y8qr-CMg1d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">officially ended the S&amp;P\u2019s longest bear run in 75 years<\/a>. But some experts say the bull market <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/16\/business\/bull-bear-market-investors.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">may not be here to stay<\/a>\u2014and they warn that investors who ignore red flags of an unhealthy market could make a bad bet on stocks and lose a ton of money.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-are-bull-and-bear-markets\"><strong>What Are Bull and Bear Markets?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The terms \u201cbull\u201d and \u201cbear\u201d market refer to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/insights\/digging-deeper-bull-and-bear-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">how stock markets are faring, generally<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>In a bull market, <\/strong>investors are optimistic and confident, and they buy stocks because they think they&#8217;ll make money, which drives prices up. There\u2019s positive economic growth and low unemployment.<\/li><li><strong>In a bear market, <\/strong>investors are fearful and cautious, and they sell stocks because they think they\u2019ll lose money, which pushes prices down. There\u2019s negative economic growth and high unemployment.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s important to understand whether we\u2019re in a bull or bear market because as the stock market (currently in bull territory) continues to rise, <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/06\/09\/stock-market-bull-rally-recession-risk-valuations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">so do potential negative consequences for investors<\/a> who fail to accurately predict an economic downturn and make the wrong bet on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-view-1-we-re-in-a-bull-market\"><strong>View 1: We\u2019re in a Bull Market<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Some financial analysts argue that the following factors indicate that we\u2019re in a new bull market:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>In early June, the S&amp;P 500 <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/energy\/2023\/06\/06\/bull-market-vs-bear-rally-weighing-up-the-20-definition\/d9e5b858-0427-11ee-b74a-5bdd335d4fa2_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>rose 20%<\/strong><\/a><strong> from its last lowest point in October<\/strong>\u2014the metric that many experts argue marks the start of a new bull market.\u00a0<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/16\/business\/stocks-bull-bear-forecast.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>A resilient economy<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>The economy has survived skyrocketing interest rates and inflation, <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/article\/after-svb-do-banks-need-more-regulation-or-less-shortform-all-sides-shortform\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bank collapses<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/article\/how-to-weather-a-recession-if-youre-not-wealthy-shortform-explainers-shortform\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ongoing recession concerns<\/a>. <\/li><li><strong>Stocks<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/06\/18\/business\/whats-happening-with-the-market\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong> broke free of the trading range<\/strong><\/a><strong> they\u2019d been confined to for months, <\/strong>aided by investor excitement about Congress\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/abolish-the-debt-ceiling\/\">debt ceiling<\/a> deal and the explosive rise of Artificial Intelligence technology.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-view-2-we-re-in-a-bear-market\"><strong>View 2: We\u2019re in a Bear Market<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Other financial analysts contend that it\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/16\/business\/bull-bear-market-investors.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">too soon<\/a> to definitively say we\u2019re in a lasting bull market. A number of signs suggest that the market\u2019s current strength may not last, including that, historically, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/jessicanix\/2023\/06\/17\/why-veteran-market-technicians-are-warning-against-summer-rally-euphoria\/?sh=423ab9f04a0f\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">bull markets have arisen within longer bear markets<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/b5281dfd-54a1-42fa-b01d-88b3aa8f3272\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>The rally is misleading<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>Though the market <em>appears<\/em> bullish, its recent upward spike was fueled by excitement over just seven S&amp;P 500 companies\u2014Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta. Meanwhile, the performance of the remaining 493 S&amp;P companies has been relatively flat. <\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/16\/business\/stocks-bull-bear-forecast.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Inflation remains high<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>With inflation at more than twice the Fed\u2019s target rate of 2%, the Board will likely raise rates and allow them to stay high for longer, which will constrict the economy.\u00a0<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2023\/06\/18\/are-we-in-a-new-bull-market-its-complicated\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Economic uncertainty looms<\/strong><\/a><strong>. <\/strong>New bull markets don\u2019t typically start during periods of economic instability.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-looking-ahead\"><strong>Looking Ahead<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Some experts warn investors <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/06\/16\/business\/bull-bear-market-investors.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">not to get caught up in current bull and bear forecasts<\/a>, which offer more insight into where the market has <em>been<\/em> than <em>where it\u2019s heading<\/em>. They argue that, given the broad range of factors at play, it\u2019s impossible to accurately forecast where the market will end up as the situation is unfolding. As a result, <strong>the labels are of little use in determining the best way to act, now, or prepare for the future.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is the US in a bull or bear market right now? Why can&#8217;t the experts agree? Depending on which financial analyst or media outlet you listen to, right now the US stock market is either a bull, a bear, or a bull within a bear. To avoid risky bets on stocks, ignore current, frenzied bull and bear forecasts and look to experts who take a retrospective approach to assessing the market\u2019s health. Continue reading for a breakdown of each side&#8217;s opinion on the matter, and how to create your investment strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":106213,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,31],"tags":[727],"class_list":["post-106212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-money","tag-articles","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is 2023 a Bull or Bear Market? It Depends on Who You Ask - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is the US in a bull or bear market right now? Experts can&#039;t seem to agree, which could mean bad news for investors. 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