{"id":103087,"date":"2023-05-26T11:24:12","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T15:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=103087"},"modified":"2023-05-28T13:17:22","modified_gmt":"2023-05-28T17:17:22","slug":"challenges-of-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/challenges-of-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenges of Forecasting: Trying to Find the Signal in the Noise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What are the challenges of forecasting? How has political and social fragmentation made forecasting harder?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, many forecasters are facing extreme difficulty in doing their jobs. Nate Silver believes there are two reasons for this. First, people are being encouraged to sort themselves into insular groups. Second, our trust in experts is at an all-time low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at why Silver believes forecasters can&#8217;t do their job accurately anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-two-challenges-for-today-s-forecasters\"><strong>Two Challenges for Today\u2019s Forecasters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Although Silver maintains that his suggestions can improve the quality of our predictions, he cautions that it\u2019s more difficult than ever to translate better prediction <em>theory<\/em> into better predictions <em>in practice<\/em>. We\u2019ve already discussed one reason for that: namely, that contemporary technology forces us to wade through more noise to find meaningful signal. But Silver also argues that <strong>since the late 2010s, unprecedented political and social fragmentation have made prediction even harder<\/strong>. We&#8217;ll discuss how these challenges of forecasting have made forecasters\u2019 jobs harder by decreasing the diversity of thought and eroding public trust in expert advice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-1-increasingly-insular-groups\"><strong>Challenge #1: Increasingly Insular Groups<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One problem for contemporary forecasters, according to Silver, is that <strong>contemporary news and social media encourage people to sort themselves into like-minded subgroups, which harms predictions<\/strong> by encouraging herd mentality and quashing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/opposing-views\/\">opposing views<\/a>. According to Silver, the best predictions often come when we combine diverse, independent viewpoints in order to consider a problem from all angles. Conversely, when you only listen to people who think the way you do, you\u2019re likely to simply reinforce what you already believe\u2014which isn\u2019t a recipe for good predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/think-again\/1-page-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Think Again<\/em><\/a>, Adam Grant suggests countering this insularity through <em>reconsideration<\/em>\u2014a process of deliberately questioning and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/challenge-your-beliefs-2\/\">challenging your beliefs<\/a>. According to Grant, one of the keys to reconsideration is to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/think-again\/1-page-summary#method-3-consider-complexity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">actively seek out opposing views and genuinely attempt to understand them<\/a>. Doing so, he says, makes your understanding of the world more complex and helps you avoid the kinds of stereotypes that so easily develop in the \u201cus versus them\u201d atmosphere of the like-minded groups Silver describes.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-2-the-erosion-of-trust\"><strong>Challenge #2: The Erosion of Trust<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, Silver argues, the same factors that have led to more insular, polarized groups have also led many people to dismiss opinions that come from outside of the group\u2019s narrow consensus. One effect of this trend is that people trust public institutions and expert opinions less than ever before, which creates a climate in which<strong> people tend to dismiss accurate\u2014and urgent\u2014predictions<\/strong>, sometimes without clear reasons. He gives the example of the 2020 outbreak of Covid-19, when a significant number of people dismissed expert predictions about the virus\u2019s likely spread and impact and, as a result, ignored or pushed back against the recommended public health protocols.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: The reasons that people ignore expert opinions may go deeper than recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/party-polarization\/\">political polarization<\/a>. For example, some studies suggest that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-021-01112-w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">inherent distrust of experts isn\u2019t necessarily linked to belonging to a specific ideological group<\/a> as Silver suggests. Nor is it a new problem: Historian <a href=\"https:\/\/www.studioatao.org\/post\/understanding-anti-intellectualism-in-the-u-s#viewer-7l3ck\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Richard Hofstadter wrote about ambivalence toward expertise in US culture as early as 1963<\/a>. Moreover, it\u2019s possible that humans are simply prone to doing the opposite of what they\u2019re told\u2014behavioral scientists point out that we\u2019re susceptible to a type of behavior called <a href=\"https:\/\/behavioralscientist.org\/why-are-people-ignoring-expert-warnings-psychological-reactance-coronavirus-covid-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>reactance<\/em>, which involves acting contrarily when we perceive threats to our individual freedom<\/a>\u2014such as when we\u2019re asked to wear masks or avoid public gatherings.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What are the challenges of forecasting? How has political and social fragmentation made forecasting harder? Today, many forecasters are facing extreme difficulty in doing their jobs. Nate Silver believes there are two reasons for this. First, people are being encouraged to sort themselves into insular groups. Second, our trust in experts is at an all-time low. Let&#8217;s look at why Silver believes forecasters can&#8217;t do their job accurately anymore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":72210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[160,24,25],"tags":[1032],"class_list":["post-103087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","category-society","category-statistics","tag-the-signal-and-the-noise","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Challenges of Forecasting: Trying to Find the Signal in the Noise - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Forecasters are responsible for predicting political events, weather, and more. Yet, two challenges of forecasting make it nearly impossible.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/challenges-of-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Challenges of Forecasting: Trying to Find the Signal in the Noise\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Forecasters are responsible for predicting political events, weather, and more. 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