{"id":1919,"date":"2025-11-24T18:10:40","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T14:10:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/hub\/?p=1919"},"modified":"2025-11-25T19:23:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T15:23:38","slug":"how-did-trump-win-the-2024-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/hub\/society-culture\/government\/how-did-trump-win-the-2024-election\/","title":{"rendered":"How Did Trump Win the 2024 Election? Choices &amp; Miscalculations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>How did Trump win the 2024 election? That momentous presidential election was shaped by a series of calculated decisions\u2014and miscalculations\u2014that began long before voters cast their ballots. At the center of it all was a single choice: Joe Biden&#8217;s decision to seek reelection despite mounting concerns about his age and fitness for office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read more to understand how Biden&#8217;s choice\u2014and his team&#8217;s efforts to shield him from scrutiny\u2014set off a chain reaction that ultimately paved the way for Donald Trump&#8217;s return to the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>Table of Contents<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-how-trump-won-the-2024-election\" data-level=\"2\">How Trump Won the 2024 Election<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#h-the-debate-disaster\" data-level=\"3\">The Debate Disaster<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-pressure-campaign\" data-level=\"3\">The Pressure Campaign<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-biden-s-withdrawal\" data-level=\"3\">Biden\u2019s Withdrawal<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-harris-campaign-s-impossible-task\" data-level=\"3\">The Harris Campaign\u2019s Impossible Task<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-ultimate-consequence-victory-for-trump\" data-level=\"3\">The Ultimate Consequence: Victory for Trump<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-explore-further\" data-level=\"2\">Explore Further<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Image credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/amstrat.com\/april-omnibus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">American Strategies<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">License<\/a>. Image cropped.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-trump-won-the-2024-election\">How Trump Won the 2024 Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In their book <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/original-sin\/preview\" rel=\"nofollow\">Original Sin<\/a><\/em>, Tapper and Thompson argue that, despite the elaborate system designed to protect the president from scrutiny, <strong>the truth about Biden\u2019s condition couldn\u2019t be hidden indefinitely<\/strong>. When it finally emerged, the consequences were catastrophic for the Democratic Party. The June 2024 debate exposed Biden\u2019s decline in a way that couldn\u2019t be explained away or controlled, starting a cascade of events that led to his withdrawal from the race and enabled Trump\u2019s return to the presidency. We\u2019ll trace the sequence of events from the debate through Biden\u2019s withdrawal, examine the rushed Harris campaign that followed, and see how the authors connect the dots to explain how Trump won the 2024 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-debate-disaster\">The Debate Disaster<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tapper and Thompson recount that<strong> the June 27, 2024 debate was the moment when Biden\u2019s carefully managed public image finally collapsed<\/strong>. The debate had been scheduled early in the campaign season partly because Biden\u2019s team believed it would give them time to recover if things went poorly\u2014a calculation that, according to the authors, revealed the team\u2019s awareness of the risks involved. Tapper had firsthand experience of the debate, serving as co-moderator alongside CNN\u2019s Dana Bash. Biden arrived late to the venue, having initially refused to do a walkthrough that every other candidate routinely performs, which the authors characterize as a sign of overconfidence despite his limitations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>What Happened at the Debate?<\/strong><br><br>The June 27, 2024 debate took place at CNN\u2019s Atlanta studios, moderated by anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The format was designed to give each candidate the best opportunity to make their case: There was no live audience, candidates had two minutes to answer questions with one minute for rebuttals, and\u2014crucially\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2024\/06\/27\/us\/biden-trump-debate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">microphones were muted<\/a> when it wasn\u2019t a candidate\u2019s turn to speak. The Biden campaign had specifically requested the muted microphones to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2024\/06\/28\/politics\/biden-trump-presidential-debate-analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">prevent Trump from interrupting<\/a>, as he\u2019d done repeatedly in their 2020 debates. The moderators took a hands-off approach, rarely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/politics\/at-cnn-debate-biden-tries-to-confront-trump-who-responds-with-falsehoods\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">fact-checking false statements<\/a> or pressing the candidates to answer questions more fully.<br><br>Despite these favorable conditions, Biden\u2019s performance was poor. His voice was hoarse and raspy, he frequently lost his train of thought mid-sentence, and he <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/06\/27\/presidential-debate-between-trump-biden-live-updates.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stumbled over basic words and facts<\/a>. In one early moment, while trying to discuss health care policy, Biden trailed off incoherently, ending with \u201cwe finally beat Medicare.\u201d He appeared to confuse Trump with Putin when discussing Ukraine and seemed to mix up immigration and abortion issues. His mouth often hung open while Trump spoke, and he appeared unfocused throughout much of the evening. The contrast with his more energetic performance just four years earlier was stark, leading many observers to conclude this was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msnbc.com\/opinion\/msnbc-opinion\/who-won-first-trump-biden-presidential-debate-rcna159343\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">evidence of significant decline<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors report that <strong>Biden\u2019s performance was immediately recognized as disastrous by those watching behind the scenes.<\/strong> According to their account, this wasn\u2019t a bad night or the result of a cold, as Biden\u2019s team later claimed, but rather the natural result of putting someone with serious cognitive limitations in an uncontrolled, high-pressure situation. Tapper and Thompson contend the debate\u2019s impact on Biden\u2019s public perception was so severe because it contradicted the carefully constructed narrative about his fitness to run for reelection. Many viewers, including Democrats who\u2019d been willing to give Biden the benefit of the doubt, could no longer rationalize what they were seeing and were shaken by his performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: The authors\u2019 emphasis on the narrative surrounding Biden is emblematic of a larger trend in American politics: namely, that <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/excerpt-from-campaign-of-chaos-how-narrative-trumped-ideas-in-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">individual policy issues have become less important<\/a> than overarching political narratives. The immediate recognition of how badly Biden was performing in the debate shows how quickly such narratives can collapse. Biden had defined himself by <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/bidens-important-message-overseas-hes-trump\/story?id=78220169\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">being \u201cnot Trump<\/a>,<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/bidens-important-message-overseas-hes-trump\/story?id=78220169\">\u201d<\/a> implying that that alone made him the more qualified candidate. His poor performance cast that in doubt, and replaced the old narrative with a new one: that the Democrats were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/06\/28\/biden-debate-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a party in turmoil<\/a> while their opponents\u2019 messaging remained <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/06\/28\/trump-biden-debate-republicans-claim-victory\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">consistent and confident<\/a> during the following news cycle.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-pressure-campaign\">The Pressure Campaign<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tapper and Thompson document that Biden\u2019s inner circle tried to control the damage. The campaign blamed external factors\u2014Biden had a cold, he was tired from travel, it was just an off night. But <strong>pressure began building from multiple directions<\/strong>. First came the donors who had been kept at arm\u2019s length. George Clooney, who had seen Biden\u2019s decline at the fundraiser, felt that the debate confirmed what he had seen privately. Clooney wrote an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/10\/opinion\/joe-biden-democratic-nominee.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">op-ed in <em>The New York Times<\/em><\/a> calling for Biden to step down, arguing that he couldn\u2019t effectively serve another term. Other major donors and Democratic figures began speaking out after Clooney broke the silence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: The pressure against Biden was intensified by the media\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/press-bothsideism-has-failed-biden-and-america\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">disproportionately negative coverage<\/a>, which exposed how differently Americans saw Biden and Trump: When Trump spoke incoherently, audiences saw it as passionate or as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/news-desk\/what-can-biden-and-trumps-2020-debates-tell-us-about-their-chances\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">part of his \u201cchaotic\u201d style<\/a>, but when Biden did the same, they saw it as evidence of cognitive decline. In the week after the debate, <em>The New York Times<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/article\/2024\/jul\/09\/biden-media-attacks-trump-felon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">published 192 stories<\/a> about Biden\u2019s age, but <a href=\"https:\/\/niemanreports.org\/warped\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">fewer than half as many about Trump<\/a>, who was only 3.5 years younger than Biden. Before the debate, two-thirds of stories about candidates\u2019 mental acuity focused exclusively on Biden, while only 7% focused exclusively on Trump.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next came pressure from Democratic members of Congress, who faced the reality that they might lose their own elections if Biden remained on the ticket. Tapper and Thompson explain that <strong>many legislators suddenly found themselves under pressure from constituents and colleagues<\/strong> and privately expressed their concerns to party leadership. Finally, senior Democratic leaders applied pressure. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer worked behind the scenes to convince Biden to step down\u2014though they were careful to avoid public criticism that might appear disloyal or destructive to the party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>The Democratic Party\u2019s Identity Crisis Made Biden\u2019s Position Untenable<\/strong><br><br>The sequence in which pressure built against Biden, from donors to Congress members to party leadership, reflected the Democratic Party\u2019s struggle to position itself. Since the 1970s, it\u2019s transformed from a working-class party into a coalition of competing interests, espousing everything from finance-friendly fiscal policies to progressive redistributionism. The party\u2019s critics assert that the preferences of the party\u2019s current professional-class base conflict with those of working-class voters, who have drifted toward Republicans.<br><br>Critics also point out that, in 2024, the Democratic Party couldn\u2019t decide whether it stood <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2022\/07\/19\/democratic-party-path-forward-centrist-or-progressive\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">for or against the status quo<\/a>. Wealthy donors, many of whom had joined the party after Trump\u2019s disruption of traditional conservatism, expected stable leadership that could maintain their interests. Congressional Democrats worried about losing both professional-class suburban supporters and working-class constituents. Senior leaders such as Pelosi and Schumer tried to hold together a coalition that lacked a clear, unifying vision beyond opposing Trump. The speed with which this coalition fractured after the debate exposed the underlying precarity of the party\u2019s position\u2014and what critics saw as its difficulty determining how to move forward.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-biden-s-withdrawal\">Biden\u2019s Withdrawal<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tapper and Thompson write that <strong>two key factors ultimately convinced Biden to withdraw from the race<\/strong>. The first was Chuck Schumer\u2019s revelation about the lack of Senate support: Schumer told Biden that in a meeting between Democratic senators and Biden\u2019s top aides, only five out of 51 Democratic senators still supported Biden\u2019s candidacy. This information shocked Biden, who took it to mean that his inner circle hadn\u2019t been honest with him about the extent of the opposition within his own party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: The quick collapse of Biden\u2019s viability as a candidate illustrates how the systems meant to shield him from negative information also kept him from making informed decisions about his future. Schumer had been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/17\/us\/politics\/schumer-biden-2024-election.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">concerned about Biden\u2019s electability<\/a> for months, sometimes receiving calls where Biden forgot why he had called. Yet Schumer felt trapped: If he expressed his concerns privately, they might leak and weaken Biden\u2019s chances, but staying silent enabled the problem to continue. Even during the crisis, Schumer publicly vouched for Biden while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2024\/07\/12\/chuck-schumer-joe-biden-drop-out-senate-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">privately gathering polling data<\/a> and urging senators not to act. The debate forced conversations that Schumer later said should have happened earlier.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second decisive factor came from DNC manager Minyon Moore, who\u2019d established a \u201cWhat If Committee\u201d to prepare for various contingencies, including the possibility that Biden\u2019s nomination might be challenged. This committee had been monitoring delegate sentiment and warned Biden\u2019s team that while he could still win the nomination, it would require an ugly floor fight. Tapper and Thompson report Biden\u2019s decision to withdraw was driven by his realization that <strong>staying in the race would require a bitter battle that would split the party.<\/strong> He accepted that the political cost of remaining had become too high, though he continued to believe that he could have won the election if he\u2019d stayed in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Moore was responsible for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/08\/20\/us\/politics\/minyon-moore-kamala-harris-dnc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">orchestrating a four-day television production<\/a> meant to <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7012501\/dnc-aoc-speech-biden-age\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">unite the party<\/a> around a presidential candidate, a task that typically involves <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/08\/19\/us\/politics\/democratic-national-convention-chicago-biden-harris.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">months of careful choreography<\/a> around a known nominee. But Moore had to prepare contingencies for multiple scenarios simultaneously, including assessing the possibility that Biden\u2019s nomination might be contested at the convention, which hadn\u2019t happened in the Democratic Party since 1968. Given her <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/outlook\/how-four-women-and-their-friendship-shaped-the-democratic-party\/2018\/11\/29\/aae4a5d6-d791-11e8-a10f-b51546b10756_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">decades of experience<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/newsletters\/west-wing-playbook\/2021\/06\/29\/the-quiet-force-in-harris-land-493417\">managing Democratic politics<\/a>, Moore was uniquely positioned to present Biden with the reality of the situation ahead of the convention: Step aside gracefully or risk the kind of chaos that could fracture the party regardless of who won.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-harris-campaign-s-impossible-task\">The Harris Campaign\u2019s Impossible Task<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tapper and Thompson argue that <strong>Kamala Harris\u2019s elevation to the top of the ticket was doomed by the circumstances of her nomination<\/strong>. She inherited the baggage of the Biden administration, including voter concerns about the economy, immigration, and foreign policy\u2014with only 107 days to define herself as a candidate and distance herself from an unpopular administration. She was also constrained by her loyalty to Biden and her role as his vice president. She couldn\u2019t fully embrace Biden\u2019s unpopular record, but she also couldn\u2019t repudiate it without undermining her own position. This prevented Harris from effectively addressing voter concerns about the Biden administration\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: The 107-day constraint wasn\u2019t necessarily fatal\u2014Harris\u2019s campaign mobilized hundreds of thousands of volunteers and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecut.com\/article\/kamala-harris-women-movement-voters-organizers-grassroots-fundraising.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">generated massive fundraising numbers<\/a>\u2014but made it difficult for Harris to overcome the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/10\/28\/us\/elections\/michelle-obama-kamala-harris-double-standard.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">double standard<\/a> she faced against Trump specifically. While Harris was expected to demonstrate substantive policy knowledge, articulate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonreview.net\/articles\/the-harris-doctrine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">comprehensive plans<\/a>, and thread the needle between defending Biden\u2019s record and establishing her own platform, Trump succeeded by simply projecting an image of confidence as a political outsider who nonetheless had figured out <a href=\"https:\/\/yalereview.org\/article\/chaos-agent-in-chief\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">everything he needed to know<\/a> to govern effectively.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The rushed nature of Harris\u2019s campaign also prevented the kind of rigorous preparation that normally occurs during a full primary process<\/strong>. Tapper and Thompson suggest that Harris\u2019s own limitations as a candidate, which had been apparent during her failed 2020 primary campaign, remained problematic. She continued to struggle with unscripted interactions and policy discussions, leading to a campaign that relied heavily on celebrity endorsements and scripted events rather than substantive policy debates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>The Primary Process: Building Voter Buy-In<\/strong><br><br>Tapper and Thompson argue that Harris was doomed partly because she missed the preparation that goes with participating in the primary. But the deeper issue may be that primaries don\u2019t just prepare candidates\u2014they build voter acceptance and enthusiasm that Harris missed the chance to earn. Experts note that presidential primaries serve a crucial legitimacy function: They convince a party\u2019s voters to embrace their nominee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.votebeat.org\/2024\/08\/02\/party-presidential-candidate-primary-kamala-harris-nominee-official\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">through a democratic process<\/a>.<br><br>Even when voters\u2019 preferred candidate loses the primary, they\u2019ve had time to see their eventual nominee tested, refined, and validated through months of campaigning, debates, and questioning. Primaries force candidates to <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/opinion\/campaign\/4898881-kamala-harris-general-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">refine their messages under pressure<\/a>, prove they can unify groups with different political motivations, and earn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/voters-need-help-how-party-insiders-can-make-presidential-primaries-safer-fairer-and-more-democratic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">broad acceptance from voters<\/a>\u2014exactly the kind of validation that could have built genuine voter confidence in Harris, rather than necessitating voters\u2019 acceptance of her as Biden\u2019s appointed successor. But Harris got the nomination without anyone having voted for her in the primary.<br><br>This meant the nomination felt like it was \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/democratic-partys-choice-of-harris-was-undemocratic-and-the-latest-evidence-of-party-leaders-distrusting-party-voters-236002\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">less democratic<\/a>\u201d than it should have been. Many voters believed the decision to replace Biden with Harris had been made by party elites, and voters already skeptical of political establishments saw her nomination as confirmation that ordinary citizens have little say in the process. One analysis observed that the support around Harris <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/why-is-kamala-harris-wrapping-up-the-democratic-nomination-so-quickly\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">came together so rapidly<\/a> that it raised questions about whether other candidates even had an opportunity to compete.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-ultimate-consequence-victory-for-trump\">The Ultimate Consequence: Victory for Trump<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tapper and Thompson conclude that <strong>Biden\u2019s decision to run for reelection led to Trump\u2019s victory.<\/strong> They argue that, if Biden had announced after the 2022 midterms that he wouldn\u2019t seek reelection, the Democratic Party could have held a proper primary. This could have produced a candidate who wasn\u2019t burdened by the Biden administration\u2019s unpopularity or the questions about age and fitness that had dominated the conversation. Democratic officials believed that Biden\u2019s selfishness and his inner circle\u2019s enablement had handed the presidency back to Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Political analysts offer mixed perspectives on whether Trump\u2019s victory could have been prevented. Writing in April 2024, Chris Stirewalt observed that polling data suggested Trump wasn\u2019t gaining new voters but that Biden was losing his 2020 supporters, making it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aei.org\/op-eds\/the-difference-between-a-biden-loss-and-a-trump-win\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Biden\u2019s election to lose<\/a> rather than Trump\u2019s to win. After the election, analyst Nate Silver (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/the-signal-and-the-noise\" rel=\"nofollow\"><em>The Signal and the Noise<\/em><\/a>) argued that the outcome wasn\u2019t predetermined: He suggested a more moderate Democratic candidate such as Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer might have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/kamala-harris-was-a-replacement-level\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">performed 1.5 to 2.5 points<\/a> better than Harris, enough to potentially change the result. In January 2025, Silver argued more directly that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/why-biden-failed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Trump might have lost<\/a> if Biden had exited the race earlier.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond the immediate electoral consequences, the authors argue that <strong>the alleged cover-up damaged the Democratic Party\u2019s credibility and undermined public trust in democratic institutions.<\/strong> They suggest that the party\u2019s insistence that Biden was fully capable of serving, followed by his obvious failure at the debate, created a broader crisis of confidence that extended beyond the presidential race. Tapper and Thompson conclude that the \u201coriginal sin\u201d of Biden\u2019s decision to run again, combined with the systematic effort to conceal his limitations, represents not just a political miscalculation but a fundamental failure of democratic accountability that had far-reaching consequences for American politics and governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Were Voters Really Surprised by the Debate?<\/strong><br><br>Tapper and Thompson argue that the alleged concealment of Biden\u2019s decline damaged Democratic credibility and represented a failure of democratic accountability. But extensive polling and media coverage suggests that Americans weren\u2019t actually deceived about Biden\u2019s condition\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/04\/26\/1172113846\/biden-reelection-age\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">concerns about his age<\/a> and fitness were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/04\/26\/upshot\/biden-age-2024-election.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">openly discussed<\/a> long before the June 2024 debate. Even during the 2020 campaign, journalists were already asking <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2019\/08\/02\/joe-biden-age-media-227499\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">whether he was \u201ctoo old\u201d to serve<\/a>, with major outlets regularly examining his \u201cphysical stamina\u201d and \u201cverbal skills.\u201d By 2022, polls showed 61% of Democrats <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/01\/us\/politics\/biden-age-democrats.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wanted someone other than Biden<\/a> to be the presidential nominee, with age as the top reason.<br><br>Throughout 2023 and early 2024, majorities of Americans (and <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/biden-age-poll-trump-2024-620e0a5cfa0039a6448f607c17c7f23e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">majorities of Democrats<\/a>) consistently told pollsters Biden was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/nation\/most-democrats-dont-want-biden-to-seek-a-2nd-term-poll-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">too old for a second term<\/a>. These numbers remained stable: Polls showed 74% of Americans and 60% of Democrats agreeing Biden was \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/538\/americans-worried-bidens-age-long-debate\/story?id=111858302\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">too old to work in government<\/a>\u201d in January 2024. Rather than revealing hidden information, the debate may have simply confirmed what voters already suspected. One poll found the share of Americans calling Biden\u2019s age a \u201cbig problem\u201d didn\u2019t even increase after the debate\u2014it was 56% before and 56% after\u2014suggesting that concerns had plateaued.<br><br>Some observers noted a distinction: Biden\u2019s age appeared to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/02\/12\/opinion\/joe-biden-age-campaign.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">more of a campaign problem<\/a> than a governing problem. A former Biden administration official said that officials inside the White House, as well as political opponents such as Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saw Biden as effective and competent. This suggests that rather than hiding Biden\u2019s governing limitations from voters, Democrats may have been <a href=\"https:\/\/news.northeastern.edu\/2023\/05\/11\/democrats-running-against-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">deceiving themselves<\/a> about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2024\/07\/democrats-biden-debate-response\/678882\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">his electability<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-explore-further\">Explore Further<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To get a better understanding of Biden&#8217;s decline and the cover-up that the authors believe ultimately led to Trump&#8217;s 2024 election victory, read Shortform&#8217;s comprehensive guide to <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/app\/book\/original-sin\/preview\" rel=\"nofollow\">Original Sin<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Biden&#8217;s choice to run and the cover-up of his decline set off a chain reaction that led to Trump winning the 2024 election. Here&#8217;s how.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":1928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government","category-history"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Did Trump Win the 2024 Election? Choices &amp; Miscalculations - Shortform Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Biden&#039;s choice to run and the cover-up of his decline set off a chain reaction that led to Trump winning the 2024 election. 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